EM ASIA CREDIT: Adani raises liquidity for airports business

• RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing     
• RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
• RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8557 High Apr 28 
• PRICE: 0.8528 @ 06:30 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 0.8480 Low May 1
• SUP 2: 0.8477/65 61.8% of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally 
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support  

EURGBP has recovered from its latest lows, however a sell-on-rallies theme last week could cap gains and keep focus on the current bear cycle. Sights are on 0.8477, a Fibonacci retracement point where a break would strengthen the bearish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA, is at 0.8465. It is still possible the move down that started Apr 11, is a correction. A clear reversal would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger.

ACGBs (YM -5.0 & XM -5.5) are cheaper after a relatively subdued Sydney session. There was no cash dealing in US tsys in today's Asia-Pac session with a holiday in Japan. Today's US calendar will see the ISM Service PMI.

• Outside of the previously outlined ANZ job ads and MI inflation gauge, the local market has likely been digesting the weekend’s Federal Election. Opinion polls had underestimated support for the incumbent Labor (ALP) government.
• Cash ACGBs are 5bps cheaper.
• Swap rates are 5-6bps higher, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
• The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -2 to -7.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 7bps firmer across meetings today, with late 2025/early 2026 leading. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 3% probability, with a cumulative 104bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%).
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Building Approvals and Household Spending data.
• This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$300mn of the 4.75% 21 June 2054 bond on Tuesday, A$1000mn of the 3.75% 21 April 2037 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2029 bond on Friday.

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 107.800 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 107.600/735 High Apr 30 / 22                   
• PRICE: 107.400 @ 05:56 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 107.395 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 107.252 38.2% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle     
• SUP 3: 107.125 Low Apr 10         
• SUP 4: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support      

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Attention is on resistance at 107.775, the Apr 7 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 107.812, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial support to watch lies at 107.370, the Apr 17 low.