TURKEY: 12- and 24-Month Inflation Estimates Fall Slightly in Latest CBRT Survey
* Inflation estimates for the next 12 months fell to 22.25% in September for 22.84% in August, acc...
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USDJPY TECHS: Shallow Bounce
- RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19
- RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 1: 150.92 High Aug 1
- PRICE: 147.74 @ 08:05 BST Aug 13
- SUP 1: 146.79 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 146.62 Low Aug 5
- SUP 3: 146.40 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 145.86 Low Jul 24
USDJPY consolidated for much of last week, holding the bulk of the NFP losses. Price has bounced, but recoveries are shallow at this stage. This has allowed a previously overbought condition to unwind, and keeps the downside argument in focus. Prices are trading either side of the 147.61 20-day EMA, and the inability to build a base here will be a concern. A clear break of this support zone would undermine the recent bull theme. A break of last week’s 150.92 high would resume the uptrend.
STIR: Euribor Implied Terminal At Highest Since April 2
The Euribor implied terminal rate is currently 1.88%, a touch below yesterday’s 1.89% level but still at its highest since April 2 (i.e. just before the initial US Liberation Day tariff announcement). With the ECB’s easing cycle now near (or potentially at) its close, material swings in terminal rate expectations will be driven by the data – particularly on the impact Q1/Q2 tariff related uncertainty has had on domestic demand and inflation.
- Euribor futures are +0.5 to +2.0 ticks through the blues.
- ECB-dated OIS are also little changed, with 17bps of easing priced over the next 12 months.
- Today’s regional data has not been market moving. Both German and Spanish final July HICP confirmed flash estimates on an annual basis.
- Regional focus remains on next week’s August flash PMIs.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Sep-25 | 1.912 | -1.0 |
| Oct-25 | 1.880 | -4.2 |
| Dec-25 | 1.813 | -10.9 |
| Feb-26 | 1.792 | -13.0 |
| Mar-26 | 1.754 | -16.8 |
| Apr-26 | 1.754 | -16.8 |
| Jun-26 | 1.751 | -17.1 |
| Jul-26 | 1.753 | -16.9 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
EURGBP TECHS: Support Tested
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 0.8735/8769 High Aug 3 / High Jul 27 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8650 @ 18:03 BST Aug 13
- SUP 1: 0.8614 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8611 Low Jul 31
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27
EUR/GBP corrected lower on the BoE rate decision, which sent prices through the weekly low. This weakness has persisted, with a pullback low yesterday testing the first support into the 50-day EMA of 0.8614. A clear break here would strengthen the bearish threat. More broadly, the trend set-up is bullish. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 27 high.
