MEXICO: USDMXN Breaks Above Resistance, Mid-Month CPI Data Due

Apr-22 10:51
  • USDMXN has extended the week’s gains, breaking above the Apr 6 high of 20.1950. Supportive price action overnight amid broad greenback strength has seen the pair extend to fresh highs at 20.3789, up 0.86% on the day.
    • This level closely matches with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the March-April range and the 200-day EMA at 20.3741.
    • Clearance of 20.1950 is a bullish technical development, signalling a potential base at 19.7274.
  • At 1200BST/0700ET, Mexico will release bi-weekly inflation data where the annual headline rate is expected to have marginally increased from the prior reading with Core CPI also estimated to advance above 7% from a prior reading of 6.88%.
    • April Bi-Weekly CPI, est. 0.07%, prior 0.59%
    • April Bi-Weekly CPI Y/y, est. 7.63%, prior 7.62%
    • April Bi- Weekly Core CPI, est. 0.37%, prior 0.40%
    • April Bi-Weekly Core CPI Y/y, est. 7.10%, prior 6.88%
  • Economic activity data for February will be published on Monday and for reference, the next Banxico decision/statement is scheduled for May 12.

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Treasuries Firm On The Day As Biden Heads To Brussels

Mar-23 10:49
  • Cash Tsys have rallied on the day as Biden heads to Brussels with plans for more sanctions on Russia. A modest trimming in rate hike expectations from very high levels has helped drive a bull steepening.
  • 2YY -2.8bps at 2.136%, 5YY -3.4bps at 2.366%, 10YY -1.8bps at 2.364% and 30YY -0.6bps at 2.595%.
  • TYM2 has nudged higher on the day, up 3 ticks at 122-26+ after a brief sell-off shortly after open on slightly above average volumes. Initial support is now seen at the earlier low of 122-12 whilst resistance remains at 124-25+ (Mar 18 high).
  • Fedspeak: Powell at 0800ET at BIS panel on innovation with possibly limited mon pol implications after a similar appearance from Williams yesterday. Daly (2024 voter) and Bullard (2022) both speak for the second day running.
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $16B 20Y Bond auction re-open (1300ET)

STIR: BLOCK, SOFR Put Spd

Mar-23 10:46
  • +8,000 SFRM2 98.50/98.75 put spds, 10.5 vs. 98.695/0.25% at 0626:32ET

MNI EXCLUSIVE: BOJ's Likely Response To Weakening Yen

Mar-23 10:43

MNI reports on the BOJ's likely response to a weakening yen-- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com