Copernicus Climate Change Service shows a probability of at least 60% for above-average temperatures in northern Europe and the Mediterranean between December and February, according to Bloomberg.
- The rest of the continent has 40% to 50% chance of exceeding median 30 year historical temperatures.
- Other gas-heating markets, such as Japan and the US northeast, face a 70% to 100% probability of above average temperatures during the winter period.
- The milder winter forecast for key demand regions could help to ease pressure on global supplies this winter and lower competition for LNG shipments.
- Hydro power could also be boosted with parts of Norway, Sweden, Finland and the Baltics showing a 40% to 50% chance of significantly more rain and snow than usual. “Precipitation is most likely below average in southwestern parts and above average over the northeast of the continent,” Copernicus said.

Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service