AMERICAS OIL: Total Port Arthur Refinery Cut Rates and Repairs Flaring Unit

• Goldman Sachs see core CPI at 0.27% M/M in March, for 3.03% Y/Y.
• “We expect used car prices to decline 0.5%, reflecting a decline in auction prices, and we expect new car prices to increase 0.1%, reflecting a decline in dealer incentives.”
• “We expect a large increase in the car insurance category (+1.0%) based on increases in premiums in our online dataset.”
• “We have penciled in modest upward pressure from tariffs imposed in February on categories that are disproportionately imported from China, such as the apparel, recreation, and communication categories.”
• “Going forward, we expect a boost to monthly inflation from the escalation in tariff policy. Aside from tariff effects, we expect underlying trend inflation to fall further this year, reflecting shrinking contributions from the auto, housing rental, and labor markets that is partially offset by catch-up inflation in healthcare. We expect year-over-year core CPI inflation of +3.7% and core PCE inflation of +3.5% in December 2025.”

• RES 4: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 0.6389 High Apr 3               
• RES 2: 0.6270 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 0.6127/0.6187 High Apr 7 / Low Mar 4   
• PRICE: 0.6018 @ 15:46 BST Apr 9 
• SUP 1: 0.5915 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.5900 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD maintains a bearish tone following the latest steep sell-off. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late September last year. A key support at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low, has been broken. This paves the way for an extension towards the 0.5900 handle next. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. The trend is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind.        

Frenetic session for rates trading, early SOFR & Treasury options started off with better upside call trade - rotated to puts after Pres Trump raised China tariff to 125% effective immediately, while granting 90 day pause for 75 other countries and lowering the reciprocal tariff lvl to 10%. Clarity still needed on who is in the pause group. Underlying futures remain under -- most notable for Tsys is the swing in curves - from new 3 year highs overnight (2s10s tapped 73.847) to 44.835 at the moment (38.225 low). Projected rate hike pricing retreats: current levels vs. this morning (*) as follows: May'25 at -6bp (-13.4bp), Jun'25 at -22bp (-37.9bp), Jul'25 at -38.9bp (-61.4bp), Sep'25 -54.6bp (-79.3bp). Year end projection of 75bp total rate cut vs. full point this morning.

• SOFR Options:
  • Block, 5,000 SFRM5 95.62/95.75 put spds 1.0 over 96.00/96.12 call spds ref 95.915
  • Block, 48,000 SFRM5 96.25/96.87 call spds 9.0-8.5 ref 96.10 to -.095
  • -6,000 SFRM5 96.25 calls, 18.0 vs. 96.105/0.40%
  • +70,000 SFRM5 97.50/98.50 call spds 3.0-3.25 ref 96.10
  • Block/screen +57,000 SFRM5 96.50/97.25 call spds 6.5-7.0 ref 96.125 to -.10
  • +10,000 SFRM5 95.68/95.75/95.81 put flys, 0.75 ref 96.10
  • -5,000 0QM5 96.75/97.00/97.25 2x2x1 call flys, 12.0 ref 9684
  • +4,000 2QM5 96.43 puts vs 3QM5 96.25 puts, 3.5 net db/Blue Jun over
  • 9,000 0QK5 98.00 calls, 3.0 ref 96.86
  • Block, 7,500 2QJ5 96.43 puts, 2.5 ref 96.675
  • Block, 3,000 SFRU5 97.50/98.50 2x3 call spds, 10.5 ref 96.50
  • 2,000 SFRH6 94.62/95.62 put spds ref 96.825
  • 2,000 SFRM5 95.75/95.93/96.18/96.38 call condors ref 96.12
  • over 8,100 SFRJ5 96.00 calls, 18.0 last ref 96.115
  • 4,500 SFRU5 96.50/97.00 call spds ref 96.435
  • 2,000 0QK5/2QK5 97.25 call spds
  • 2,000 SFRM5 96.75/97.50 call spds vs. 2QM5 97.50/98.25 call spds
  • 2,000 SFRM5 95.75/95.81/95.88 put trees ref 96.085
  • Block/screen, 13,000 SFRM5 96.50/97.25 call spds ref 96.125
  • Block, 5,000 SFRK5 95.81/95.93/96.00/96.06 broken call condors, 5.0 ref 96.155
  • Block, 4,000 SFRM5 95.62 puts, 1.0 ref 96.18
• Treasury Options:
  • Block, 30,000 TYK5 108.5 puts 11 vs. 110-11/0.02%
  • 4,500 USK5 115/117 call spds, 48 ref 113-22
  • 20,000 FVM5 110/111.5/113 call flys, 2 ref 108-04.25 to -05
  • 3,500 FVM5 110.5/111 call spds ref 108-07
  • 10,000 FVK5 106.25/106.5/107/107.25 put condors ref 108-04.25
  • 2,000 wk3 TY 110.75/112 strangles ref 110-22 (exp 4/17)
  • over 4,600 TYM5 112 calls, 60 ref 110-24
  • 6,000 UXYM5 109/110 put spds ref 112-12
  • 4,000 UXYM 112/113 put spds ref 112-12
  • over 10,300 USK5 113 puts, 143 last
  • over 11,000 USK5 116 calls, 131 last
  • 5,200 USK5 117/120 call spds, 25 ref 114-12 to -11
  • over 6,000 TYM5 112.5 calls, 50 last ref 110-30.5 to -31
  • 1,000 TYK5 112.5/113.5/114.5/116.5 broken call condors ref 110-27
  • 1,300 FVM5 107/107.5 put spds, 13 ref 108-08
  • 2,500 TYK5 112/113 call spds ref 110-26