- Treasuries look to finish mixed Thursday. Bonds outperformed weaker short- to intermediate rates as curves scaled off the steepest levels since June 2022 earlier (2s10s currently -5.944 at 16.420 vs. 22.679 high), driven by a flurry of economic data.
- Initial jobless claims 218k (sa, cons 223k) in the week to Sep 21 after an upward revised 222k (initial 219k). The four-week moving average fell further to 225k (-3k) for its lowest since May 31 and now back close to the 218k averaged in 2019.
Preliminary August durable goods orders were stronger than expected on a headline basis. Comprehensive GDP revisions saw Q2 GDP growth unrevised on a rounded basis at 3.0% annualized after an upward revised 1.6% in Q1 (from 1.4). - Multiple Fed speakers said little to move markets today, for example: VC Barr noting Fed facilities support Treasury market resilience, NY Fed Williams announced a new committee of investors to support integrity, efficiency, and resiliency in the use of reference rates.
- Dec'24 10Y Tsy futures are currently -5.5 at 114-12 vs. 114-07 low with initial technical support at 114-00.5 (Low Sep 4).
Projected rate cuts into early 2025 cooled vs this morning's levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -37.8bp (-40.4bp), Dec'24 -73.8bp (-78.6bp), Jan'25 -104.5bp (-111.5bp). - Looking ahead to Friday's session: PCE, Wholesale/Retail Inventories, UofM sentiment and more Fed speak wrapped up by Gov Bowman at an Alabama Bankers Assn moderated discussion at 1315ET.
US TSYS: Tsy Curves Consolidating, Data Better Than Expected on Net
Last updated at:Sep-26 19:49By: Bill Sokolis
US
- Treasuries look to finish mixed Thursday. Bonds outperformed weaker short- to intermediate rates as curves scaled off the steepest levels since June 2022 earlier (2s10s currently -5.944 at 16.420 vs. 22.679 high), driven by a flurry of economic data.
- Initial jobless claims 218k (sa, cons 223k) in the week to Sep 21 after an upward revised 222k (initial 219k). The four-week moving average fell further to 225k (-3k) for its lowest since May 31 and now back close to the 218k averaged in 2019.
Preliminary August durable goods orders were stronger than expected on a headline basis. Comprehensive GDP revisions saw Q2 GDP growth unrevised on a rounded basis at 3.0% annualized after an upward revised 1.6% in Q1 (from 1.4). - Multiple Fed speakers said little to move markets today, for example: VC Barr noting Fed facilities support Treasury market resilience, NY Fed Williams announced a new committee of investors to support integrity, efficiency, and resiliency in the use of reference rates.
- Dec'24 10Y Tsy futures are currently -5.5 at 114-12 vs. 114-07 low with initial technical support at 114-00.5 (Low Sep 4).
Projected rate cuts into early 2025 cooled vs this morning's levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -37.8bp (-40.4bp), Dec'24 -73.8bp (-78.6bp), Jan'25 -104.5bp (-111.5bp). - Looking ahead to Friday's session: PCE, Wholesale/Retail Inventories, UofM sentiment and more Fed speak wrapped up by Gov Bowman at an Alabama Bankers Assn moderated discussion at 1315ET.
