Betting markets have turned bullish on the prospect of the Republican Party winning all three branches of government. According to Kalshi, the implied probability of the GOP taking the sweep has spiked to over 50% with the probability of a Democrat sweep cratering to 7%. 

• Traders are likely seeing Trump's early strength in Georgia as a signal that his 'Sun Belt+1 Blue Wall state' pathway is now slightly more probable than Harris sweeping the Blue Wall, her most straightforward pathway to the presidency.
• In the Senate, a strong rightward swing in Appalachian Kentucky, in the presidential race, is bad news for Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown's (D-OH) prospects of holding onto his Ohio seat. Should Brown lose, Democrats are effectively blocked from retaining the Senate.
• Note: Republican President/Republican Senate/Democrat House remains the second most likely balance of power outcome, according to Kalshi.

Figure 1: Rightward Shift In Kentucky 

Source: NYT