The Swedish National Debt Office’s forecast error for the budget balance grew to SEK15.2bln in August, after the monthly budget surplus of SEK34.9bln fell short of the SEK39.3bln projection. We have previously noted that this forecast error will need to be incorporated into the Debt Office’s November projections, alongside the Autumn budget’s fiscal policies and the lower-than-expected Riksbank capital injection.

• The August forecast error largely due to the primary balance (i.e. interest payments were broadly in line with peojections). The press release notes that tax revenue was ~SEK1bln lower than estimated, while Government agency spending was above expectations.
• A reminder that the Debt Office had accounted for SEK40bln of unfunded fiscal measures for 2025 in its May forecast round – below the Government’s announced size of “around SEK60bln”.
• See “SWEDEN: Policies To Support Households Announced Ahead Of Sep 19 Budget” on Sep 5, for more on the fiscal policy measures announced so far.