EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 162.37/164.19 High Apr 7 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 159.80 @ 15:45 GMT Apr 9 
• SUP 1: 158.30 Low Apr 7   
• SUP 2: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4  
• SUP 4: 154.80 Low Low Feb 28  

EURJPY continues to trade in a volatile manner. Recent weakness still appears corrective, and the strong rally off Monday’s low reinforces this theme. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.30, Apr 7 low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would expose 164.19, the Mar 18 high and the bull trigger.      

The EU is implied to be included in the US's announcement of a 90-day pause/10% rate, per a White House official cited by Bloomberg - though the article doesn't address the Mexico/Canada ambiguity mentioned earlier: "Countries that were hit with the higher, reciprocal duties that went into effect Wednesday will now be taxed at the earlier 10% baseline rate applied to other nations, with the exception of China, according to a White House official."

• Ex-CEA Chief Economist Ernie Tedeschi makes the following observation, on X.com: "Folks, a 10% broad tariff on everything plus 125% on China, is a 25pp increase in the effective tariff rate, even accounting for USMCA exemptions. That's almost exactly where 2025 tariff policy was this morning. It was just less concentrated on China & more weighted overseas".
• That math checks out, roughly speaking: China represented around 13% of US goods imports in 2024, so every 10% effective increase to the Chinese tariff rate = 1.3pp to the US overall effective import tariff rate. The pullback in the ex-China rate to a blanket 10% (not taking into account sectoral carveouts) for the 87% more or less offsets the 70bop China increase from 54% to 125%.

Bearish - call unwinds and vol sales: 

• -10,000 0QM5 97.00/97.50 call spds, 5.0 ref 96.51 (paper +50K yesterday)
• +12,000 0QJ5 96.25 puts, 0.5 ref 96.56
• -5,000 SFRM5 96.50 calls, 4.5 ref 95.92
• +5,000 SFRJ5 96.00 calls, 2.0 ref 95.92
• -10,000 0QM5 97.00/97.50 call spds, 5.5 ref 96.535
• -4,000 SRH7 96.50 straddles, 120 ref 96.52