EUR/PLN reacted little to both the rate decision itself as well as the policy statement, with intraday price action more likely a function of the global picture amid a slew of US data.

• Note that there was a substantial upward revision to the central bank’s projection of inflation in 2025 (from a range of 2.2-5.0% in the March projections to 3.9-6.6%) and a more moderate upward revision to the 2024 forecast (from 2.8-4.3% to 3.1-4.3%). This is because the inflation projection unveiled in March reflected a highly uncertain outlook, with the central bank charting paths based on two scenarios regarding anti-inflation shields.
• Now, the path of anti-inflation shields is broadly known: VAT on food products of 5% was restored starting from April, whereas retail electricity and natural gas prices increased by about 18% and 20%, respectively, from July.
• Attention turns to Governor Glapinski’s press conference tomorrow at 14:00BST/15:00CET, where he is likely to stick with a self-described hawkish tone from his previous media briefing and push back against the possibility of monetary easing before the end of this year.