- Bi-weekly and full-month September CPI data are due in Mexico tomorrow, with consensus for headline inflation to fall to 4.61% y/y last month, from 4.99% in August, while the core inflation rate edges down to 3.94%, from 4.00%.
- Scotiabank expects a similar move for core inflation inside the central bank’s 2-4% target range, in line with data for H1 September. They also see headline inflation close to the mid-4s. In their view, given the positive mid-month data, it may be that markets react more aggressively to surprising strength in core inflation (above 4%) than they would in the other direction, especially after Banxico’s Heath’s recent hawkish comments and also after the front-end selloff globally on US data.
- USDMXN has risen by 0.3% today to 19.34, but continues to trade below the August and September highs. Next key support to watch lies at 19.2380, the 50-day EMA, which has been pierced. Below this, the next support is 19.0666, the Sep 18 low.
- First resistance and a key short-term hurdle for bulls, is at 19.8295, the Oct 1 high.
MEXICO: September CPI Inflation Expected To Keep Door Open To Further Rate Cuts
Last updated at:Oct-08 17:22By: Keith Gyles
Mexico+ 1
- Bi-weekly and full-month September CPI data are due in Mexico tomorrow, with consensus for headline inflation to fall to 4.61% y/y last month, from 4.99% in August, while the core inflation rate edges down to 3.94%, from 4.00%.
- Scotiabank expects a similar move for core inflation inside the central bank’s 2-4% target range, in line with data for H1 September. They also see headline inflation close to the mid-4s. In their view, given the positive mid-month data, it may be that markets react more aggressively to surprising strength in core inflation (above 4%) than they would in the other direction, especially after Banxico’s Heath’s recent hawkish comments and also after the front-end selloff globally on US data.
- USDMXN has risen by 0.3% today to 19.34, but continues to trade below the August and September highs. Next key support to watch lies at 19.2380, the 50-day EMA, which has been pierced. Below this, the next support is 19.0666, the Sep 18 low.
- First resistance and a key short-term hurdle for bulls, is at 19.8295, the Oct 1 high.
