Natural gas prices were higher on Monday with Europe rising 3.7% to EUR 43.97, levels not seen since the end of October, to be up 8.3% in November to date. Cold weather and continued lack of wind to drive electricity have resulted in faster-than-average November inventory drawdowns and thus price are higher.

• A cold snap is forecast for the end of November in northwestern Europe, which is likely to result in further gas drawdowns. Storage is currently around 93% full, the seasonal lowest in three years, according to Bloomberg.
• Refilling scheduled for spring/summer 2025 is in focus with the premium over the 2025/2026 winter widening, which Bloomberg reports is unusual, but European regulations require that storage be at a certain level by the start of the heating season on October 1. This means that it may be competing with Asia for global supplies as it meets its cooling needs during the summer.
• US natural gas rose 10.5% to $2.95 to be almost 9% higher this month. The rally was driven by lower production and forecasts for lower temperatures from Maxar. Mild weather has weighed on gas demand and thus prices and EBW Analytics described Monday’s move as a “relief rally”. BOK Financial noted that there are significant short positions in the market.
• US output had been cut due to persistently low prices and Appalachian supply is now over 10% lower than a year ago, according to Bloomberg.
• North Asian LNG rose 0.5% as it competes with Europe, South America and north Africa for global supplies.