According to ElectionBettingOdds, a website that aggregates data from betting and prediction markets - including PredicIt, Polymaket, Smarkets, and Betfair - Democratic Party presidential nominee Kamala Harris now leads former President Donald Trump for the first time since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race - a nearly 14% swing in the past week.

• Harris' boost comes following the announcement of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) as her vice-presidential running mate and ahead of the Democratic National Convention, which gets underway on August 19.
• Harris' polling bounce may recede slightly before the DNC, but historical data suggests she will receive another bump during the convention, where she will formally accept the presidential nomination.
• The New York Times national polling average shows that Harris now leads Trump by +1. Her first polling average lead of the race and a four-point swing to Democrats since Biden exited the race on July 21.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner

Source: ElectionBettingOdds