FOMC Meeting

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Inter_Meeting_Fed_Speak_Apr2026_1e36b34c03.pdf Ahead of next week's Fed decision, we've published our summary of FOMC participant communications since the March FOMC meeting, including MNI's Hawk-Dove Matrix and a recap of the latest Beige Book and January meeting minutes.

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Apr2026_41d0d27442.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * April's FOMC meeting communications will reiterate the Committee's broadly shared view that policy is well-positioned and the next move is not urgent, particularly because the Iran war-related energy shock and associated uncertainty complicate the outlook. * Data since the last FOMC meeting have largely supported a wait-and-see approach, on balance showing initial resilience to the energy price shock seen in March (especially in the labor market) although surveys warn higher spillover to non-energy prices could be in the pipeline. * Where Committee views have started to diverge most is whether and how quickly the FOMC could signal openness to removing its explicit easing bias. * So while a Fed funds rate hold at 3.50-3.75% at this meeting is universally expected, with no new set of economic projections, attention will be paid to whether the easing bias in the Statement guidance is amended in favor of a two-sided approach to future rate moves. * Either way, rate guidance may soon be eliminated altogether. This is likely to be Chair Powell's last meeting before his term ends in mid-May, after which Kevin Warsh is set to assume the chairmanship. * In his Senate confirmation hearing, Warsh said he doesn't believe in forward guidance, and signaled that he would seek major changes to not just Fed communications practices but several key areas of policy. * Warsh is broadly expected by markets and analysts to steer the FOMC's rate lean in a more dovish direction, but his ability and indeed willingness to do so are not entirely clear. * There's not much Powell can say at the press conference about the outlook that differs from what he said in mid-March, given the ongoing impact of the war distorting economic signals, though it's possible that if the Statement doesn't shift to a two-way rate guidance, he may echo the recent Minutes in a hawkish fashion in suggesting that the Committee is leaning increasingly to that conclusion. MNI's separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday April 27

MNI previews the April FOMC meeting.

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Apr2026_W_Analysts_853ed000ad.pdf This update of our April 24 Fed preview includes analyst expectations - starting page 34 April 2026 FOMC Analyst Views: Hawkish Guidance Risks All analysts (among 30 previews seen by MNI) expect the FOMC to hold the Fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% at its April meeting, but opinions differ over possible communications shifts. General consensus is that the risks are that the post-meeting communications lean more hawkish vs expectations as opposed to more dovish, with most focus being on the Statement. * While the vast majority of analysts expect the FOMC to retain its implied easing bias in the Statement, many see risks that forward guidance ("In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range") shifts hawkishly to a more balanced/two-sided phrasing. A couple (Barclays and Wells Fargo) have a change in guidance as their base case for this meeting. * Wells Fargo: "The Committee is likely to emphasize optionality in its statement. We expect it to note that higher energy costs are keeping inflation elevated and to soften forward guidance, replacing language around "the extent and timing of additional adjustments" with more openended phrasing that references "future adjustments" to the policy rate." Barclays: "by removing in the statement the word "additional" when referring to upcoming rate adjustments, the FOMC would signal that it no longer views the next policy rate change as necessarily continuing the recent cutting cycle. This would suggest that it has a more balanced view about its next rate move and would reinforce expectations of policy on hold for the rest of the year." * In a variation of these risks, UBS analysts - who see "close to even odds" that the guidance becomes two-sided at this meeting - notes a hawkish incremental shift could revolve around the risks (2nd) paragraph, eg the Iran war "has increased the risks inflation remains elevated." * Tweaks are seen possible to the opening paragraph describing economic conditions, with some eyeing economic activity now described as "moderate" vs the prior "solid", and/or job gains to "modest" vs the prior "low", though inflation is expected to still be described as "somewhat elevated". * Overwhelming consensus is that Gov Miran will dissent again in favor of a 25bp cut, but will not be joined by others. * Future action: There is consensus among analysts that the Fed has a bit further to go on cuts, though a few see the easing cycle as having already concluded. The median analyst sees 50bp of further cuts, with 25bp easings seen in September and December. Citi is the most dovish on the rate outlook, seeing 75bp of cuts delivered by year-end, though 4 other analysts see that amount of easing by 2027.