PLN: Zloty Approaching Best Levels of the Week as Greenback Falters
Jun-20 10:23
- Downside momentum for EURPLN has gathered steam in recent trade, with spot 0.2% lower at typing and back below the week’s opening levels. The acceleration in zloty gains has broadly coincided with EURUSD breaching the overnight highs, with similar intraday strength noted for the Hungarian forint.
- For EURPLN, this week's prior gains had been considered corrective from a technical standpoint, with the broader reversal lower from the May 19 high highlighting a potential bearish threat. That keeps the focus on key short-term support at 4.2230, the May 15 low, clearance of which would expose the 4.2000 handle. On the upside, key resistance to watch has been defined at 4.3102, the Apr 16 high.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Bear Threat Still Present
May-21 10:22
- RES 4: 112-20+ High May 1 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 112-01+ High May 2
- RES 2: 111-22 High May 7 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 110-24+ 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 109-27+ @ 11:12 BST May 21
- SUP 1: 109-18+ Low May 15
- SUP 2: 109-08 Low Apr 11 and key support
- SUP 3: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 108-21 Low Feb 19
Treasury futures are trading lower today and maintain a bearish tone. The recent breach of 110-01+, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 1 bull leg, strengthens a bearish theme and exposes key support at 109-08, Apr 24 low and a bear trigger. Key near-term resistance is at 111-22, the May 7 high. A move above this level is required to signal a potential reversal. First resistance is at 110-24+, the 50-day EMA.
CROSS ASSET: Risk Off prevails, US 30yr Yield remains above 5%
May-21 10:22
- As noted on the Bund Open, US Yields level remain a deep concern for investors, higher US rates impact the cost of service its debt, the Tax plan is expected to raise Debt and its Deficit.
- Pointed to the US Emini on the European Open and potential for some fade back down to 5867.25 and the 5789.06 area.
- Higher Yield combined with the Risk Off was the cause for the Tariffs delay back in April.
STIR: Nearing Fewest Cuts Priced For Oct FOMC Since February
May-21 10:20
- Fed Funds implied rates are up to 1.5bp higher on the day for 2025 meetings, with 34bp of cuts priced for the October FOMC for close to recent hawkish extremes.
- The lift is helped by higher oil futures (WTI +1.4%) on a report that Israel is preparing to strike Iran and some spillover from stronger than expected UK CPI inflation.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1.5bp Jun, 7bp Jul, 20bp Sep, 34bp Oct and 51bp Dec.
- The implied rate
- SOFR implied yields are 3bps higher in late 2026 contracts, with the terminal yield of 3.365% (SFRZ6) keeping within recent ranges.
- Today sees a thinner session for Fedspeak, with just Barkin (non-voter) and Bowman (voter) in a Fed Listens event. Bowman won’t offer any remarks.
- Barkin didn’t touch on monetary policy in a speech yesterday. He noted on May 9 that consumer spending and business investment is still very solid although it’s not a given that firms can raise prices on tariffs.
- Yesterday saw Daly, Hammack and Bostic say that a proposal for the FOMC to publish economic scenarios and reaction functions in a quarterly report may be confusing and difficult to accomplish practically. Even if the FOMC published scenarios, the public "may not be able to process it, they may not be able to understand," Hammack said, adding, "But I'm open to ideas about how to be more transparent in our process."
