JGB TECHS: (Z6) Bull Cycle

Note that US markets (Columbus Day) and Japan markets (Health-sports Day) are out today

The NZD/USD had a range Friday night of 0.5601 - 0.5621, Asia is currently trading around 0.5605, -0.15%. The pair has come back under some early pressure as the Middle-East flares up, moving back toward 0.5600. Like the AUD though it has been unable to really build any real momentum lower in recent weeks. There has been some decent demand toward the 0.5500 area since 2020 and it would take a sustained push below there to see the bears look for another leg lower. While below 0.5700-0.5750 the trend remains lower though albeit a little stretched. Initial resistance is toward 0.5630-0.5660 and above there the 0.5700-0.5750 area comes back into play. Can we see another test of the lows or does this inability to move lower suggest a potential reversion back to the mean that would offer better levels to enter a short ?                

• “Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport came under fresh attack from the Houthis a day after a strike on the hub killed 12 people, demonstrating the Yemeni militants’ ability to reach the heart of Saudi power. King Fahd International Airport in Dammam was also targeted.” - BBG
• CFTC Data up to 06/10/2026 shows Asset Managers are quickly rebuilding their core shorts, -32 534(Last -21 228). The Leveraged community remains sidelined after being squeezed out of its shorts, -1 214(Last -1 454) and are not being so quick to jump back in.
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data:  none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5760(NZD386m Oct 13), 0.5790(NZD466m Oct 15) - BBG
• The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 35 Points

Fig 1: NZD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI