GILT TECHS: (Z6) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8652 High Jun 26 
• RES 3: 0.8632 76.4% retracement of the Jun 22 - Jul 15 bear leg  
• RES 2: 0.8601 61.8% retracement of the Jun 22 - Jul 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8588 High Jul 30 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8569 @ 06:45 BST Sep01
• SUP 1: 0.8532 Low Aug 12 and key S/T support 
• SUP 2: 0.8518/8455 Low Jul 22 / 15 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 3: 0.8443 2.236 projection of the May 18 - 25 - Jun 22 swing
• SUP 4: 0.8374 76.4% retrace of the Dec 19 ‘24 - Nov 14 ‘25 bull leg  

EURGBP continues to trade in a range. Key short-term resistance is at 0.8588, the Jul 30 high. A clear break of it would suggest scope for a stronger corrective bull theme and highlight a clear breach of the 50-day EMA, at 0.8570. This would open 0.8601, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that medium-term trend signals still highlight a dominant downtrend. Initial firm support to watch is 0.8532, the Aug 12 low. Clearance of it would be bearish.

• RES 4: 105.810 High Jul 8
• RES 3: 105.744 61.8% retracement of the Jul 2 - 23 bear leg 
• RES 2: 105.690 High Aug 5 
• RES 1: 105.467/572 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• PRICE: 105.270 @ 06:25 BST Sep 03
• SUP 1: 105.265 Low Jul 3 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 105.247 1.236 proj of the Jul 2 - 8 - 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 105.200 Round number support
• SUP 4: 105.184 1.382 proj of the Jul 2 - 8 - 10 price swing

A bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade below the the 50-day EMA, currently at 105.561. Attention is key support at 105.265, the Jul 23 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 105.184, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at the area around the 50-day EMA, at 105.561.

Spain, Belgium, the ESM, Greece and the EU are still due to sell bills this week, while France has already come to the market. We look for issuance of E22.4bln in first round operations, up from E19.1bln last week.

• This morning, Spain will look to sell a combined E5.5-6.5bln of the 6-month Mar 5, 2027 letras and the new 12-month Sep 10, 2027 letras.
• Belgium will then look to sell a combined E2.8-3.2bln of 3/6/11-month TCs: an indicative E1.0bln each of the Dec 10, 2026 TC, the Mar 11, 2027 TC and the Aug 12, 2027 TC.
• To conclude today's issuance the ESM will look to sell up to E1.6bln of its new 3-month Dec 4, 2026 bills.
• Tomorrow, Greece will look to sell E400mln of the new 52-week Sep 3, 2027 GTB.
• To conclude the week's bill issuance, also tomorrow, the EU will look to sell up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Dec 4, 2026 EU-bill, up to E1.5bln of the 6-month Mar 5, 2027 EU-bill and up to E2.0bln of the new 12-month Sep 3, 2027 EU-bill.