EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Impulsive Bull Cycle

Lithuania is likely to hold a syndicated transaction today, Germany will hold an auction and books will close on Belgium’s latest Bons d’ Etat retail offering. Spain and France are due to hold auctions tomorrow while Belgium will hold an ORI operation on Friday. The EFSF and Italy have held syndicated transactions already this week, while Germany held an auction yesterday. We pencil in issuance of E48.7bln for the week (excluding retail) up a little from E29.5bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Supply Daily with a recap of issuance so far this week and a look ahead to this week and next week's issuance, click here. 

• Lithuania has sent a mandate for a potential EUR-denominated dual tranche syndicated LITHUN transaction, consisting of a long 10-year maturity and a 20-year maturity to be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions. We expect the transaction today.
  • Lithuania's issuance plan for 2025 sees a E6.0bln Eurobonds issuance target. E2.0bln was raised at syndication in January (dual-tranche 5/15-year) and we calculate just under E1.2bln has been sold at auction.
  • This leaves E2.0bln as our expected size (split equally between the two tranches). We see two-way risks to this (towards either E1.5bln or E2.5bln).
• Germany will return to the market today, with E5bln of the 10-year 2.60% Aug-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z056) on offer.
• Also today, the subscription period for Belgium’s Bons d’ Etat is scheduled to close. Two lines are on offer for retail investors: the 1-year 1.90% Sep-26 Bons d' Etat (ISIN: BE3871306366) and the 10-year 3.20% Sep-35 Bons d' Etat (ISIN: BE3871307372).
  • After the first five days (to Monday 1 September), E296.4mln of the 1-year and E72.4mln of the 10-year had been taken up.

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8713 High Sep 2  
• PRICE: 0.8702 @ 06:48 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 0.8628/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP traded higher Tuesday, resulting in a breach of resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Key support to watch lies at  support at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate the recent bearish threat.

Greece and the EU are still due to sell bills this week, while Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium and the ESM have already come to the market. We estimate issuance in first round operations at E26.9bln for the week, up from E18.8bln last week.

• This morning, Greece will look to sell E500mln of the new 52-week Sep 4, 2026 GTB.
• Also today, the EU will conclude bill issuance for the week with up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Dec 5, 2025 EU-bill on offer alongside up to E1.0bln of the 6-month Mar 6, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the new 12-month Sep 4, 2026 EU-bill.