April 1 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI Crude Oil is lower on the day in volatile trading after a 3% rally yesterday amidst supply concerns from potential US tariffs on buyers of Russian and Iranian oil but as concerns with slowing economic growth weigh on sentiment.
- US President Trump has said this week that he believes Putin won’t “go back on his word” and he wants him to make a deal but will introduce “secondary tariffs on Russian oil” if needed.
- US reciprocal tariffs are to be announced at 4pm ET (9pm BST) on Wednesday. Press secretary Leavitt said that there would be “no exemptions at this time”.
- Caixin China manufacturing PMI rose 0.4 points to 51.2 in March signalling moderate growth in the sector and follows the official PMI yesterday at the highest since March 2024 at 50.5. US and EU manufacturing data today is due today.
- The API US oil inventory data is due at 16:30ET ahead of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report tomorrow. A WSJ survey forecast a crude oil stock draw of 700,000 bbl, a gasoline draw of 1.4m bbl, and a distillate draw of 600,000 bbl. Runs are seen up 0.3%.
- Rabobank expect Brent to fall to $67.50/b by the end of 2025, with a full year average of $70.50/b.
- Albertan oil sand producer Syncrude is running at reduced rates ahead of maintenance work according to Bloomberg.
- Western Canadian Select’s discount to WTI narrowed to $9.45/bbl from $10.15/bbl amid oil sands maintenance, low inventories and doubts about looming US tariffs.
- The NOAA 6–14-day outlook is neutral for heating demand but supportive of cooling demand in the West through Apr 14 with below-normal conditions in Texas, shifting east late in the outlook period, with normal to above normal conditions elsewhere. Below-normal heating demand is likely in most of the country with above-normal demand in PADD 1 late in the period.
- US cracks were higher on the day ahead of API inventory data and expected refined product stock draws. However, the ULSD crack remains shy of the $26/bbl level seen in late March.
- WTI May futures were down 0.4% at $71.20
- WTI June futures were down 0.3% at $70.76
- RBOB May futures were up 0.6% at $2.30
- ULSD May futures were up 0.5% at $2.29
- US gasoline crack up 0.8$/bbl at 25.50$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 0.6$/bbl at 24.96$/bbl