CANADA DATA: Widest Current Account Surplus In Two Decades On Oil Exports

Politico reports that Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-ME) “expects to finalize a stopgap funding patch this week as she negotiates a compromise with her Democratic counterpart Sen. Patty Murray [D-WA].” According to the report, Senate Budget Chair Ron Johnson (R-WI) expects the stopgap to hit the Senate floor this week, leaving room next week for the chamber to consider a budget framework that Presdient Donald Trump and House Republicans are pressuring senators to pass.

• The Senate is likely to pass a Continuing Resolution that ups spending. That will be handed back to the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will have to face off with deficit hawks again, if a shutdown is to be averted on October 1.
• This timeline sets up a potential ‘vote-a-rama’ on the House’s USD$95 billion reconciliation budget next week. Johnson told reporters the Senate budget blueprint would be similar to the House’s product but tweaked to “pass parliamentary muster.”
• The budget resolution has an uncertain future. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) told Punchbowl that he’d “prefer doubling” the defence funding number in the House-passed budget resolution and suggested it may need to head that direction in order for the budget resolution to get 50+ Senate R’s.
• Thune said, “I do think that’s an issue. Frankly, if we’re gonna do this and what it’s gonna take to get this done, you kind of want to make it worthwhile, and I think the president asked for $350 billion… We’re at 67.”

• "*TRUMP: IRAN DOESN'T CONTROL THE STRAIT, WE CONTROL THE STRAIT" bbg

• Moderate two-way flow after Advanced Goods data: imports much lower than previously, exports decline less than previously; Retail Inventories decline while wholesale rises.
• Rising above narrow early NY range: TYU6 currently +3 at 108-21.5, yield -.0202 at 4.6285% - as Pres Trump talks on Fox on US/Iran negotiations, ease of taking out Pickaxe Mountain, adding that Iran has agreed to not having a nuclear weapon.
• Technical resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 108-30+. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective.
• Next up: FHFA House Price Index at 0900ET.