ENERGY: What to Watch: ARA Crude Stocks & EIA US Oil Inventories

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1 
• RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $31.022 - High Jan 24                              
• PRICE: $30.159 @ 08:12 GMT Jan 27  
• SUP 1: $29.509/28.748 - Low Jan 13 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 last year remains in play and recent gains still appear corrective. The metal is holding on to its latest gains and this does suggest scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal. On the downside, support to watch is $29.509, the Jan 13 low, and $29.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.

• RES 4: 1.4655 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4564 3.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4516 High Jan 21  
• PRICE: 1.4391 @ 08:05 GMT Jan 27 
• SUP 1: 1.4261 Low Jan 20
• SUP 2: 1.4248 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.4120 Low Dec 11 
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5

Recent price action in USDCAD highlights resistance at 1.4516, the Jan 21 low, and support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. Both levels also represent important short-term directional triggers. The trend condition remains bullish and a clear breach of 1.4516 would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. For bears, a move through 1.4261 and 1.4248, the 50-day EMA, would instead highlight a possible reversal. 

This morning’s rally in global core FI (see earlier posts for colour) has spilled over into EUR STIRs, with year-end ECB implied rates 3bps below Friday’s close. That leaves ECB-dated OIS pricing 91bps of easing through December, with 75bps of cuts priced through the first half of this year.

• December ’25 implied rates are still more hawkish than before Friday’s stronger-than-expected January flash PMIs. We note that some analysts have raised questions around the seasonality of the PMIs post-Covid, which may have biased readings higher in Q1.
• Euribor futures are +1.5 to +4.5 ticks through the blues. ERZ5 is +3.0 ticks at 97.860 this morning, widening the gap with support at 97.7950 (Jan 13 low), which contained downside on Friday.
• Thursday’s ECB decision headlines this week’s regional data calendar, with a 25bp cut unanimously expected by analysts and essentially fully priced in OIS. Our ECB preview will be released tomorrow.
• We also get flash Q4 GDP, the ECB's Bank Lending Survey, December money/credit , January EC sentiment and January flash inflation data this week, while the Fed decision and communications from US President Trump will also be in focus.