MARKET INSIGHT: What to Watch: June Employ Data, Fed Speak

Tsys trading modestly higher, inside overnight range on light volume (TYU2<260k) as markets await June employment report. Yield curves flatter, 2s and 5s flatter/remain inverted vs. 10s while 2s5s near steady.

• Rates broke higher late Thu (2240ET) on news Former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe shot while speaking at political event in Nara, wires report Abe's passing this morning.
• Stocks mildly weaker on inside range: ESU2 -6.0 at 3899.0; Crude near steady after bouncing Thu, WTI +0.12 at 102.85; Gold +1.47 at 1741.63.
• Headline employment report coming up at 0830ET:
  • Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (390k, 268k)
  • Change in Private Payrolls (333k, 235k); Mfg (18k, 23k)
  • Unemployment Rate (3.6%, 3.6%)
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM (0.3%, 0.3%); YoY (5.2%, 5.0%)
  • Labor Force Participation Rate (62.3%, 62.4%) followed by
  • Wholesale Inv's MoM (2.0%, 2.0%), Sales MoM (0.7%, --) at 1000ET and
  • Consumer Credit ($38.069B, $30.0B) at 1500ET
• Fed speak:
  • Atlanta Fed Bostic interview on CNBC at 0845ET
  • NY Fed Williams, Puerto Rico Univ speaking event, text, Q&A at 1100ET
• Tsy Auctions resume next week:
  • $43B 3Y, and reopens for $33B 10Y and $19B 30Y.
• Geopol: Kishida Confirms Election Will Go Ahead Despite Abe's Assassination: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has confirmed that campaigning ahead of Sunday's House of Councillors election will go ahead despite the assassination of former PM Shinzo Abe later today.