EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C July 27

Sepearately to the panel BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill is now on, he gave an interview with the Press Association which was published overnight in which he has stated that it hasn't been "easy" to be a hawkish dissenter on the MPC but reiterated that he feels Bank Rate hasn't been sufficiently restrictive over recent years (and now). There doesn't appear much in here that is new. Remember that he has hawkishly dissented against cuts pre-Iran war and was the sole dissenter in favour of a hike at the April MPC meeting and was joined by Greene at the June MPC meeting in hawkishly dissenting. His comments still feel some way away from the 

• "I would emphasise that I'm not dissenting because I want to get my name in the papers, or I want to be a troublemaker on the committee."
• "Over my time on the MPC, I've probably, if anything, erred on the side of supporting the institutional view, even when I had some scepticism about it."
• "It's not an easy choice for me to dissent at a personal level."
• He has reiterated again that he thinks its not just now, but that Bank Rate has been cut too much or at least too quickly ahead of the current Iran-driven issues: "I think probably, on balance, it hasn't been restrictive enough over the last few years,"
• "The world is becoming more uncertain and becoming more complex... what we can guarantee is that monetary policy is not adding to uncertainty, and I think that is where we should keep the focus."

• RES 4: 1.3509 High May 25     
• RES 3: 1.3379 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3306 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3273 High Jun 22 
• PRICE: 1.3206 @ 06:34 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 1.3140 Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: 1.3125 Low Nov 26 ‘25
• SUP 3: 1.3038 Low Nov 20 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.3010 Low Nov 5 ’25 and a key support

The trend structure in GBPUSD is bearish and short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at 1.3159, the Mar 31 low, has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a medium-term bearish condition and open 1.3038, the Nov 20 ‘25 low. Note that moving average studies remain a bear-mode position, this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Key resistance to watch is around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3379.

• RES 4: 116.000 Roun number resistance    
• RES 3: 115.947 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 29 - Jun 10 price swing     
• RES 2: 115.610 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 29 - Jun 10 price swing
• RES 1: 115.530 High Jun 26 
• PRICE: 115.420 @ 06:12 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 114.941/700 20-day EMA / Low Jun 22      
• SUP 2: 114.180 Low Jun 10 and a key short-term support  
• SUP 3: 114.080 76.4% retracement of the May 19 - 29 bull leg  
• SUP 4: 113.840 Low May 20

Bobl futures maintains a firmer tone and the contract is trading at last week’s highs as a short-term bull cycle remains intact. Key resistance at 115.180, the May 29 and Jun 16 high, has been cleared. The clear breach of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19, and opens 115.610 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 114.180, the May 10 and 11 low. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 114.941.