USDCAD conditions remain bullish despite the sharp sell-off yesterday. Key support lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3441, the Feb 22 low. The recent print above resistance at 1.3586, the Feb 13 high and bull trigger is a positive development. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3623 initially, a Fibonacci retracement.
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Gilt calls, range 98.18/98.22.
Some focus on the Equity open today, with VGH4 making multiple attempts over the past 5-6 sessions at the 4700.00 level, printed a 4698.00 so far today:
The uptick from yesterday’s worst levels in wider core global FI markets has a dovish feedthrough into SONIA, leaving futures flat to +5.0, as the late reds and greens lead the move higher.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-24 | 5.175 | -1.4 |
May-24 | 5.106 | -8.3 |
Jun-24 | 4.991 | -19.8 |
Aug-24 | 4.827 | -36.2 |
Sep-24 | 4.677 | -51.2 |
Nov-24 | 4.479 | -71.0 |
Dec-24 | 4.332 | -85.7 |