US NATGAS: Waha Daily Natgas Fundamentals

US President Donald Trump has seen his net approval rating on trade, the economy, and inflation all improve from lows seen in late-April, in reaction to a decrease in uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policy. 

• Silver Bulletin notes that Trump's approval rating on trade and the economy currently sits at roughly net-10%, with his approval on inflation substantially lower at -19.7%.
• The polling suggests that voters have upgraded their assessment of Trump's handling of key economic issues following a series of talks to dial down tensions with trading partners, particularly China.
• The positive reaction to Trump's tariff rapprochement may signal a more moderate trade policy as deadlines for the conclusion of tariff pauses on China and the EU approach. 

Figure 1: Trump's Net Approval on Issues

Source: Silver Bulletin

Takeup of the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility jumped Wednesday, rising $35.6B to $173.6B, the second-highest total of the month ($180.4B May 19).

• ON RRP takeup has been somewhat erratic the last few sessions, though it's not expected to rise much past Wednesday's levels (ie remaining below $200B).
• One exception of course could be at the end of this week, given the typical temporary rise amid month-end dynamics.

Selected sell-side analysts on the May meeting minutes:

• BMO FICC: "it will be the first Minutes to incorporate two key macro events: 1) The ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements, and 2) Q1’s negative real-GDP print. If anything, we'll be curious to see if there are any nuances to the Fed's game plan for a situation in which its dual-mandate goals are in tension."
• BofA: "The minutes should underscore the stagflation risks that were emphasized in the statement, and the notion that the Fed is frozen in place until there is greater clarity on policy. Any details on how the Fed would respond to stagflation, if it were to materialize, would be of interest to markets. But we doubt the Fed would want to lose optionality by being explicit on its reaction function at this stage."
• Deutsche: "With most Fed officials seemingly aligned with this messaging [wait-and-see approach to policy] before and after the meeting, the minutes are likely to signal broader consensus on the Committee for Powell’s signals. The minutes are also somewhat stale as the meeting occurred before the most recent significant trade de-escalation with China."
• Natixis: "We will be watching out for any assumptions about the final outlook for trade policy but don’t expect much new to be revealed."
• TD: "We expect them to reiterate that economic uncertainty remains a key factor for the US outlook, leading to policy guidance that has remained cautious."