AUSTRALIA DATA: Wage Gains Pick Up, Led By Public Sector
The Q1 wages print was slightly above market expectations, printing at 0.9%q/q (0.8% was forecast and the prior was 0.7%). In y/y terms we rose 3.4%, also above forecasts (3.2%, which was also the prior outcome).
- This is the first y/y momentum gain since Q2 last year. We are below recent highs for the metric (4.3%y/y, recorded in Q4 2023), but still comfortably above long averages (the 3yr moving average for y/y wages growth is back at 2.5%), see the chart below.
- At face value this suggests little need for aggressive RBA easing action and still suggests tightness in the labor market.
- The detail was a touch on the dovish side, in the sense that stronger wage gains were more focused in traditional public service areas. The ABS noted: "Seasonally adjusted private sector annual wage growth was unchanged from the December quarter at 3.3 per cent. Annual public sector wage growth was higher than the private sector at 3.6 per cent in the March quarter 2025, up from 2.9 per cent in the December quarter 2024."
- The strongest q/q gains were for health care, +1.4%, education +1.3% and public administration, +1.0%. Utilities, along with wholesale trade, at 0.9%, were the next strongest. Weakness was evident in retail trade, accommodation (+0.1%) and manufacturing (+0.3%), although these figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Fig 1: Australian Wages Growth Ticks Up In Q1, Led By Public Sector Gains
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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ASIA STOCKS: Outflows Continue Despite Inflow for Taiwan
Relatively constant outflows mixed with the odd meaningful inflow continues to be the thematic we see as we watch the equity flows across the major markets.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$467m as of Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$2,948m. 2025 to date flows are -$11,478, m. The 5-day average is -$590m, the 20-day average is -$296m and the 100-day average of -$152m.
- Taiwan: Had inflows of +$1,022m as of Friday, with total inflows of +$530m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$17,717. The 5-day average is +$106m, the 20-day average of -$252m and the 100-day average of -$243m.
- India: Had outflows of -$518m as of the 9th, with total outflows of -$2,815m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative -$16,476m. The 5-day average is -$563m, the 20-day average of -$44m and the 100-day average of -$150m.
- Indonesia: Had outflows of -$13m as of Friday, with total inflows of -$313m over the prior five days. YTD flows are negative -$2,180m. The 5-day average is -$63m, the 20-day average -$43m and the 100-day average -$35m
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$34m as of Friday, outflows totaling -$250m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,396m. The 5-day average is -$50m, the 20-day average of -$25m the 100-day average of -$18m.
- Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$27m as of yesterday, totaling -$440m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,778m. The 5-day average is -$88m, the 20-day average of -$60m the 100-day average of -$40m.
- Philippines: Saw inflows of +$1m as of Friday, with net outflows of -$78m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$294m. The 5-day average is -$16m, the 20-day average of -$3m the 100-day average of -$6m.
CHINA PRESS: PBOC To Cut RRR, Rates Timely
The People’s Bank of China will likely cut the reserve requirement ratio or interest rates in a timely manner should U.S. tariff hikes cause negative impact on the economy, said Yu Yongding, a former PBOC monetary policy committee member. The PBOC will also likely increase liquidity injections via open market operations or purchase newly issued government bonds in the secondary market to support expansionary fiscal policy, said Yu. The PBOC may even need to directly intervene in the capital and property markets if volatilty triggers systemic financial and economic risks, said Yu. (Source: Shanghai Securities News)
CHINA PRESS: China Sees Credit Demand Recovering
Recovered corporate credit demand amid rising manufacturing PMI and accelerating infrastructure construction supported March's better-than-expected growth in new yuan loans, 21st Century Business Herald reported citing analysts. Residential housing mortgages also grew rapidly, as the transactions of new and established houses in many cities increased significantly, the newspaper said, adding that early repayment has eased following the reduction in outstanding housing mortgage rates. Banks extended CNY3.64 trillion in new loans in March, up from February's CNY1.01 trillion.
