FOREX: Volume Spike Drives EUR/USD to Lows into WMR Fix
Dec-18 16:01
EUR/USD breaks out to new daily lows in recent trade, with single currency selling largely responsible here, although the losses aren't uniform across G10. EUR/GBP trades off a concurrent low at 0.8251.
- Little news or headline flow to drive the latest leg lower in EUR/USD, but it does coincide with a firm recovery off lows for the e-mini S&P, which spans a 30 point rally off the daily low to print the best level of the day.
- Pre-Fed, the greenback remains the strongest currency in G10, and the weakness in EUR/USD works in favour of this caution. EUR futures are posting above-average activity on the latest leg lower, likely tied to the WMR fix: around 7,500 contracts traded on the leg lower, across ~10 minutes, marking a cash equivalent of near $1bln and comfortably the best participation for the session so far.
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US TSY FUTURES: Treasury Quarterly Futures Roll Update: Volume Accelerating
Nov-18 16:00
Tsy quarterly futures roll from Dec'24 to Mar'24 update below. Roll volumes remain light with percentage complete mostly 2-3% across the curve (30Y leads at nearly 10% complete) ahead the "First Notice" date on November 29. Current roll details:
- TUZ4/TUH5 appr 56,300 from -6.88 to -6.5, -6.75 last; 2% complete
- FVZ4/FVH5 appr 54,400 from -6.0 to -5.5, -6.0 last; 4% complete
- TYZ4/TYH5 appr 47,100 from -5.0 to -4.75, -4.75 last; 4% complete
- UXZU4/UXYH5 8,900 from -8.25 to -7.75, -8.0 last; 1% complete
- USZ4/USH5 24,800 from -5.0 to -3.0, -3.75 last; 9% complete
- WNZ4/WNH5 5,100 from -4.0 to -3.0, -3.5 last; 3% complete
- Reminder, December futures won't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on December 19, 2s and 5s on December 22. December options expire November 22.
US STOCKS: Off Lows, Pharmaceuticals Continue To Underperform
Nov-18 15:53
- Stocks are trading mixed by midmorning, SPX Eminis and Nasdaq outperforming weaker DJIA prices Monday, prices off lows with Financials and Health Care sectors weighing. Currently, the DJIA trades down 9.81 points (-0.02%) at 43434.36, S&P E-Minis up 24 points (0.41%) at 5920.25, Nasdaq up 154 points (0.8%) at 18833.88.
- Pharmaceutical stocks continued to weigh on the Health Care sector, carry-over weakness after President elect Trump's choice of RF Kennedy Jr to head the Dept of Health & Human Services was announced last week: Eli Lilly -4.25%, Amgen -2.04%, Charles River Labs -1.11%.
- Banks and services shares weighed on the Financial sector: Arch Capital Group -5.60% (ex-div after announcing a $5 special dividend on November 8), Discover Financial Services -1.24%, Synchrony Financial -1.15%, Goldman Sachs -1.12%.
- Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors outperformed in the first half, autos and parts suppliers supporting the former: Tesla +7.85% compared to Ford +1.41%, Genuine Parts +3.81%, AutoZone +0.88%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares buoyed the Communication Services sector: Warner Bros +3.80% after resolving a dispute with the NBA and agreeing to a lucrative 11 year contract, Live Nation +2.29%, Netflix +1.66.
- Big names still to report earnings this week include: Jacobs Solutions, Lowe's, Walmart, Target, Williams-Sonoma, TJX, Nvidia, Palo Alto Networks, Intuit, Copart and the Gap.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'24 30Y Buy
Nov-18 15:38
- +3,000 USZ4 115-26, buy through 115-24 post time offer at 1030:12ET, DV01 $396,000. The 30Y contract trades 115-30 last (-12)
