EM CEEMEA CREDIT: UZBEK: monetary tightening to tame rising headline inflation
Mar-20 07:33
Republic of Uzbekistan (UZBEK: Ba3/BB-/BB-)
“*CENTRAL BANK OF UZBEKISTAN RAISES KEY RATE TO 14% FROM 13.5%” – BBG
- The key policy rate is on the up again, reversing easing move back in July when rate got to 13.5% from14.00%. This follows headline inflation reaching 10.1% YoY in February. Monetary tightening is expected to achieve headline inflation within 7-8% range by year end. For context, the CB has an inflation target below 5%.
- The next policy rate review meeting of the CB’S Board is scheduled for 24 April.
- Our feeds show UZBEK 6.9474 May32 charting @ z+312bp or 6.92% yield area, having launched at 6.95% yield approx. one month ago.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
UK DATA: AWE and PAYE Wage Data Both Softer - But RTI Data Showing Trend Lower
Feb-18 07:27
- Looking at the change in private regular AWE (which came in at 6.22%Y/Y in the 3-months to December, a little lower than the 6.29% pencilled in by the BOE's MPR), we think that the slight downside surprise was broadly equally attributable to both the fresh December data and a downward revision to November.
- There was no revision to the high 6.68%Y/Y for the single month October print, but the single month November print was revised down to 5.90%Y/Y from 6.12%Y/Y (leaving the 3-month November print at 5.89%Y/Y, down from 5.96%). The single month print for December was 6.09%Y/Y.
- However, looking at the PAYE RTI wage data, there was a more meaningful revision and continued downside momentum. The flash estimate for January 2025 came in at 5.01%Y/Y - that is the lowest since April 2022. December was revised down to 5.20%Y/Y from 5.41%. Like in the AWE data there is a temporary spike higher in the October print.
- As can be seen from the chart below, the HMRC PAYE RTI median pay growth continues to trend downwards.
EGB OPTIONS: Bund put fly
Feb-18 07:22
RXM5 127.50/126.50/125.50p fly, bought for 5.5 in 3k.
GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
Feb-18 07:19
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2996.9 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2942.7 - High Feb 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2913.8 @ 07:19 GMT Feb 18
- SUP 1: $2864.2 - Low Feb 12
- SUP 2: $2833.2 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2807.3 - Low Feb 4
- SUP 4: $2756.5 - 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to hold on to the bulk of its recent gains. Fresh highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2833.2, the 20-day EMA.
