JPY: USD/JPY - Looking For A Foothold Above 160

The USD/JPY range today has been 160.13-160.28 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 160.20.  The pair remains well supported on dips and is now attempting to get a foothold above the MOF/BOJ “line in the sand”, almost taunting them to come back in. The MOF/BOJ have shown they are willing to back up their previous selling and have seemingly drawn a line in the sand above 160 which is keeping the Yen bears at bay for the moment. A move back above 160-161 would be problematic for them as it could see the pair begin to accelerate higher if they are not around to stop it. On the day, the first support is toward 159.50-159.00 and then the 158.00 area. The pullbacks have been few and far between and CFTC positioning shows the market is again sitting very short Yen as they continue to press the Japanese officials resolve. The underlying story regarding Yen weakness remains the same though and core positions are reflecting that. 

• Robin Brooks on X: “Japan is running out of fiscal space. It's tried everything from financial repression to using its central bank to cap yields. Both of these keep yields artificially low, which just leads to currency debasement. That's the story of the Yen in recent years.”
• CFTC Data up to 02/06/2026 shows Asset Managers continuing to add to their very newly built short Yen position, -62 814(Last -56 276). The Leveraged community did the same, adding to their already own larger core shorts, –105 136(Last -86 249).
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 157.00($1.01b), 158.00($681m), 159.00($1.305b). Upcoming Close Strikes : 157.15($901m June 11), 160.00($1.2b June 10), 160.25($936m June 11) - BBG.
• The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 45 Points

Fig 1 :JPY CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P