JPY: USDJPY Led Through Overnight Lows on Surge in Core Treasuries
Nov-14 12:47
USDJPY downtick here being driven by pullback in belly of the US curve - the sharp retracement in the US 10 yield undermining the USD, and helping drag USDJPY through the overnight lows to narrow the gap with interim support into 154.13.
- Price action in bond markets remains the key driver for currencies - and while there was no specific headline or newsflow here to drive the move in yields (and the feedthrough to currencies), weaker equity markets continue to unsettle risk appetite.
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US SWAPS: Long End Spreads Continue To Lead Widening After Powell's QT Comments
Oct-15 12:46
Long end swap spreads continue to lead the move as yesterday’s widening is extended on.
- A reminder that comments from Fed Chair Powell, pointing to potential end to QT in the coming months, drove Tuesday’s widening.
- 5- & 10-Year swap spreads move to fresh multi-month highs but still trade below pre-Liberation Day levels that prevailed in early April.
- Meanwhile, 30-Year spreads trade close to their March closing high (-73.5bp).
- J.P.Morgan recommended unwinding 3-year swap spread wideners following the comments from Fed Chair Powell.
- They noted that “term funding premium is now below our estimate of fair value. We turn neutral on swap spreads”.
US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Thune Signals Change In Shutdown Strategy
Oct-15 12:31
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- President Donald Trump will hold a press conference with FBI Director Kash Patel at 15:00 ET 20:00 BST and host a “Ballroom Dinner,” at 19:30 ET 00:30 BST
- At 14:15 ET 19:15 BST, the Senate will vote a ninth time on the House-passed government funding bill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is deploying a new strategy to ramp-up pressure on Democrats. US troops will receive paychecks today, but funds are unlikely to extend to the next military payday on October 31.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned labour market risks are a more immediate concern than tariff-driven inflation.
- JPMorgan Chase's investment strategy reflects the private sector's endorsement of Trump's agenda.
- Trump suggested the US could halt purchases of Chinese cooking oil in retaliation for Beijing’s withdrawal from US soybean exports.
- Trump threatened Spain with tariffs for failing to hit NATO spending targets.
- Trump’s upcoming National Security Strategy is expected to focus on the Western Hemisphere.
- NATO defence ministers meet today in Brussels amid speculation that Trump could sell Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.
- Trump warned the US could disarm Hamas "violently" as the Gaza peace plan faces its first significant test.
- Trump said an economic assistance package for Argentina is contingent on President Javier Milei 'winning' Oct. 26 legislative elections.
- The US military killed another six alleged drug traffickers off the coast of Venezuela.
- Poll of the Day: US voters “resoundingly” support Trump’s Gaza peace plan.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
MNI: CANADIAN AUG MANUFACTURING SALES -1.0% MOM
Oct-15 12:30
- MNI: CANADIAN AUG MANUFACTURING SALES -1.0% MOM
- CANADA AUG FACTORY INVENTORIES +0.3%; INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.75
