CNH: USD/CNY Fixing Rises, But Error Term Re-Widens
Aug-23 01:20
The USD/CNY fix was set at 7.1358, against a Blomberg consensus of 7.1454.
- Today's fixing error re-widened to -96pips in USD/CNY terms, from yesterday's +13pip outcome. This is in line with a decent bounce in broader USD indices, with the fixing error widening to dampen some of this impact.
- The actual fix was still well above Thursday's outcome (7.1228).
- USD/CNH is little changed in early dealings for Friday. The pair last near 7.1450, which is leaving CNH underperforming the generally softer USD trend seen against the majors (JPY up 0.30%).
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CNH: USD/CNY Fixing Fresh High Back To Nov 2023
Jul-24 01:19
The USD/CNY fixing printed at 7.1358, versus the Bloomberg consensus of 7.2770.
- Today's outcome is a fresh high back to November last year. The fixing error was little changed, -1412pips in USD/CNY terms.
- The upside limit on USD/CNY spot is 7.2785, so not too far from where onshore spot ended yesterday (7.2748).
- USD/CNH is slightly higher post the fixing outcome, last near 7.2890.
US TSYS: Tsys Little Changed Early, Japan's 40y Auction the Focus In Asia
Jul-24 01:11
- It has been a subdued start to cash trading in Asia, yields are +/- 0.5bps with a slight bear-steepening theme occurring, the 10y yield is trading at 4.254% after trading at a low of 4.15% on July 17th.
- Treasury futures are little changed today, TYU4 trades at 110-24 just above initial support at 110-22 (20-day EMA)
- A Reuters poll released earlier shows Kamala Harris ahead of Trump for the Presidency 44% to 42%, while the betting odds at PredictIt have Trump at 55% down 4pts, while Kamala is trailing with a 46% chance up 2pts.
- Earnings for the "Magnificent Seven" kicked off earlier and disappointed the market after Alphabet said investors will be to be patient to see strong results from AI, while Tesla's profit missed estimates, next up we have Microsoft on July 30th.
- There is little on the Asia calendar today with the focus just on Japan's 40y auction.
JGBS: Slightly Cheaper Ahead Of 40Y Supply
Jul-24 01:01
In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures are weaker but off session lows, -6 compared to settlement levels.
- Preliminary Jibun Bank PMIs printed for July: Mfg falls to 49.2 from 50 in June; Services rises to 53.9 from 49.4 in June; and Composite rises to 52.6 from 49.7 in June.
- Today, the local calendar will also see 40-year supply.
- (Bloomberg) Yen interest rate futures have room to decline as December contracts are pricing for only one more Bank of Japan rate hike this year, which understates the risks to the Japanese currency which lie ahead later this year. Indeed, a survey of economists expects a modest rate increase in the window between July and October, with almost nothing forecast for December. (see link)
- Cash JGBs are slightly cheaper, with yields flat to 1bp higher. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.8bp higher at 1.073% versus the cycle high of 1.108%.
- Swap rates are little changed out to the 30-year, and 4bps higher beyond. Swap spreads are mixed.
