FED: US TSY 10Y TIPS AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $87 MLN FROM $21.000 BLN TOTAL

Jul-24 16:45

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* US TSY 10Y TIPS AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $87 MLN FROM $21.000 BLN TOTAL...

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FED: US TSY 2Y AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $300 MLN FROM $69.000 BLN TOTAL

Jun-24 16:45
  • US TSY 2Y AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $300 MLN FROM $69.000 BLN TOTAL

FED: Entirely Appropriate To Maintain Modestly Restrictive Stance - Williams

Jun-24 16:41

NY Fed's Williams (permanent voter), typically towards the more dovish end of the FOMC, says maintaining the modestly restrictive policy stance is entirely appropriate in a keynote address titled "The Totality of the Data" (link). It’s a view that most on the FOMC appear to have with two notable exceptions in Gov Waller and VC Supervision Barr. 

  • “Maintaining this modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. It allows for time to closely analyze incoming data, assess the evolving outlook, and evaluate the balance of risks to achieving our dual mandate goals”.
  • He cited a New York Fed survey which finds three quarters of respondents passed along at least some of their higher costs to consumers. "Almost a third of manufacturers and nearly half of service firms reported fully passing along all tariff-related cost increases."
  • Williams described consumer spending as resilient and the labor market as solid, saying growth will fade to 1% this year and the unemployment rate rise to 4.5%.
  • His remarks will be followed by Q&A.
  • Recall that earlier today, Fed Chair Powell at the semi-annual testimony again implied that a cut isn't coming in July but there could be enough data by September's meeting to decide then (similar to his messaging at last week's FOMC press conference).

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview 2Y Note Auction

Jun-24 16:31

Tsy futures are just off late-morning highs (TYU5 currently +4 at 111-18.5 vs. 111-22 high) ahead of the $69B 2Y note auction (91282CNL1) at 1300ET, WI is currently running at 3.792%, 16.3bp rich to last month's stop.

  • May auction recap: Tsy futures remained bid (2Y Tsy dipping about 0.5bp to session low 3.968%) after the latest $69B 2Y note auction (91282CNE7) stopped through: 3.955% high yield vs. 3.965% WI; 2.57x bid-to-cover vs. 2.52x prior.
  • Peripheral stats: Indirect take-up climbed to 63.3% from 56.2% prior, directs retreated to 26.2% vs. 30.1% prior, primary dealer take-up 10.5% (11.3% 5-auction average).