LNG: US LNG Netbacks Favour Asia: BNEF

May-24 09:49

Asia remains the most profitable market for US LNG until at least November as of May 24, with the JKM-TTF spread widening, BNEF said.

  • For July delivery, Asia earns a netback of $8.51/MMBtu, up 42 cents/MMBtu on the day. Meanwhile, Europe earns a netback of $7.68/MMBtu for July arrival, up 27 cents/MMBtu.
  • For August, the Asia netback is $8.68/MMBtu, up 46 cents/MMBtu on the day. This remains above Europe’s $7.76/MMBtu netback for August, up 26 cents/MMBtu.
  • In September, Asia’s netback is up 42 cents/MMBtu on the day at $8.89/MMBtu, while Europe’s netback is up 25 cents/MMBtu to $8.09/MMBtu.

Historical bullets

JAPAN: Opinion Poll Shows Voters Want LDP Out Ahead Of Crucial By-Elections

Apr-24 09:36

The latest opinion poll from outlet Mainichi makes difficult reading for PM Fumio Kishida and his Cabinet, showing that a significant majority of respondents want to see the governing conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) ousted from power at the next general election. The poll, carried out from 20-21 April, asked respondents what their desired outcome of the next general elections would be. Sixty-two percent of respondents said they want to see a change in gov't, with just 24% in favour of a continuation of the current coalition involving the LDP and the Komeito party.

  • Kishida faces a significant test on 28 April, with three parliamentary by-elections taking place that could have a significant impact on the PM's longevity in office. All three seats were previously held by the LDP. However, in the face of declining support and unlikely odds, the party is only standing a candidate in the Shimane No.1 seat.
  • Kishida faces an internal LDP leadership contest in September. One of the few paths to the LDP reconfirming Kishida would be a strong general election performance ahead of then. However, a loss in Shimane could deal a blow to the prospects of a summer election, and therefore raise the likelihood of the LDP replacing Kishida.
  • It should be noted that in spite of the poor polling for Kishida and the LDP, a change in governing party remains unlikely. The main opposition liberal Constitutional Democratic Party has not benefited substantially from the LDP's unpopularity, trailing the governing party in all polling.

GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: 2.20% Feb-34 Bund

Apr-24 09:32
2.20% Feb-34 Bund Previous
ISIN DE000BU2Z023
Total sold E4bln E4.5bln
Allotted E3.239bln E3.682bln
Avg yield 2.54% 2.38%
Bid-to-offer 2.02x 1.62x
Bid-to-cover 2.49x 1.98x
Average Price 97.04 98.42
Low acc. Price 97.03 98.41
Pre-auction mid 96.985 98.384
Previous date 03-Apr-24

FOREX: AUD on Top as CPI Limits RBA

Apr-24 09:30
  • AUD is outperforming, rising against all others in G10 on the back of the hotter-than-expected CPI release overnight. Quarterly CPI rose 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.8% and strength in trimmed mean metrics gives the RBA less room to consider a first rate cut of the cycle later in 2024. Support for AUD has put AUD/USD within range of clustered resistance at the 200- and 50-dmas (0.6529 and 0.6534 respectively).
  • Scandi currencies are on the softer side, responding to a sharp uptick in the Swedish unemployment rate metrics - the March SA unemployment rate surprisingly rose 8.6% from a revised 8.1% - the highest since mid-2021. EUR/SEK is higher in return, rising for the first session in five.
  • The USD Index is middling-to-higher, recovering a small part of the PMI-induced losses posted during the Tuesday session, aiding both EUR/USD and GBP/USD off the overnight highs.
  • USD/JPY printed a new cycle best in early Europe/late Asia, keeping market focus on the tolerance of the Japanese authorities toward protracted currency weakness. Nikkei reported late yesterday that the BoJ board will discuss JPY performance at this week's meeting, leaving markets to maintain a moderate downside skew for USD/JPY in near-term options pricing.
  • Focus for the session ahead turns to prelim March durable goods orders data on top of Canadian retail sales and the BoC minutes release. The speaker slate is considerably quieter relative to a busier beginning of the week, with no major appearances set from the ECB or BoE. The Fed remain inside their pre-decision media blackout period.