EURGBP TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8694 High Apr 14
- RES 1: 0.8670 High Jul 02 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8664 @ 14:56 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Jul 7
- SUP 2: 0.8573/8520 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
- SUP 4: 0.8407 Low Jun 4
The trend condition in EURGBP is unchanged, it remains bullish. The recent consolidation appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. Note too that 0.8648, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A resumption of gains and a breach of 0.8670, the July 2 high and bull trigger, would strengthen bullish conditions and open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8573, the 20-day EMA.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 6172.38 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 6124.00 High Feb 24
- RES 2: 6080.75 High Feb 26
- RES 1: 6074.75 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6028.75 @ 07:25 BST Jun 11
- SUP 1: 5910.19/5808.04 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 5756.50 Low May 23
- SUP 3: 5596.00 Low May 7
- SUP 4: 5455.50 Low Apr 30
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract has again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. The recent break of 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger, highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6080.75 next, the Feb 26 high. Key support to watch lies at 5808.04, the 50-day EMA.
US DATA: CPI Dispersion Metrics Point To Only Mild Uptick For Core Goods
- Taking a step back, dispersion metrics of CPI inflation saw a mild uptick with 33% of ~190 items in the overall basket growing in excess of 3% Y/Y vs 29% in April.
- It’s the highest since February and before that May 2024, with the share having bottomed out at 28% in December. For context, it averaged 24% in 2019 or 19% in 2015-19.
- The same analysis for core goods saw the >3% Y/Y share rise from 14% to 19% in May for its highest since Feb and before that Apr 2024. As noted in the details, whilst there were multiple large increases in M/M rates for some specific items, there were also some surprisingly weak readings elsewhere.
- Further, whilst the latest level is above the 12% averaged in 2015-19, it’s only back to the 18.5% seen just in 2019, having peaked at 75% in 2022.
- The share of core services items growing >3% Y/Y largely consolidated an impressive recent drop, only rising 1pp to 51% having been at 63% in February. However, it averaged 38% in 2019 or 34% in 2015-19.
