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MNI: UK JUNE FINAL MANUF PMI 47.7 (47.7 FLASH, 46.4 PRIOR)

Jul-01 08:30
  • MNI: UK JUNE FINAL MANUF PMI 47.7 (47.7 FLASH, 46.4 PRIOR)

EUROPEAN INFLATION: Dutch June HICP As Expected But Multiple Moving Parts

Jul-01 08:25

Dutch flash HICP inflation fell to 2.77% Y/Y in June, down from 2.94% in May and broadly inline with the 2.8% consensus estimate (which only consisted of 5 analysts). This equates to a 0.00% M/M sequential reading (0.0% cons). There were multiple moving parts in the release, with services partially reversing higher (as we hypothesised following the May final data), lower core goods and food/alcohol/tobacco, and firmer energy (as was the case more widely in the Eurozone in June).

  • Services HICP accelerated to 3.85% Y/Y from 2.80% in May (lowest since Mar 2022) having surged to 5.97% in April. This category has been volatile on Easter effects but despite the acceleration in June it still prints a fair bit below the 4.26% averaged in Q1.
  • The flash data does not contain details here but it may be that the volatile transport-related services have partially reversed from their pronounced May softness. The current rate could be described as still elevated.
  • Non-energy industrial goods (core goods) dropped from 1.75% to 0.55% Y/Y in June, its lowest since January.
  • Looking at the non-core items, FAT (food/alcohol/tobacco) came in at 4.59% Y/Y - much lower than the readings around 7% seen throughout this year previously. Energy meanwhile, as for a set of other Eurozone countries, printed higher than before in the Netherlands, at 0.59% Y/Y (first positive yearly rate since December; vs -1.09% May).
  • The national CPI was 3.1% in June (3.1% cons, 3.3% May).
  • For reference, Netherlands represents around 6% of the overall 2025 Eurozone HICP basket.
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ITALY DATA: Weaker Than Expected June Manuf PMI; New Orders Down As In Spain

Jul-01 08:12

In contrast to Spain, the Italian manufacturing PMI was weaker-than-expected at 48.4 (vs 49.5 cons, 49.2 prior). The index has now been in contractionary territory for 15 consecutive months. However, as in Spain, it was another report that flagged weakness in export orders alongside reductions in output charges.

Key notes from the release:

  • "Italian goods producers stated that a sustained decline in new orders led them to reduce their production levels"..."Global economic uncertainty and muted customer demand hampered new sales intakes, according to manufacturers. The solid fall in total new work was weighed down by a renewed decrease in new export orders in June. New sales from abroad fell as firms noted difficulties reaching out to new clients and weakness in demand conditions in existing markets".
  • "June data indicated a second successive monthly decrease in input costs faced by Italian manufacturers"..."In line with lower costs and in a bid to boost new sales, Italian goods producers lowered their output charges at the end of the second quarter".
  • "Manufacturers remained in retrenchment mode during June, as they reduced headcounts and lowered input buying".
  • "Input buying, meanwhile, decreased at a solid pace. Despite weaker demand for inputs, supplier performance deteriorated for the first time in three months, amid logistics delays and vendor shortages".
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