LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 03-Jun | 0930 | May | S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (Final) |
| 04-Jun | 0930 | May | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 04-Jun | 1640 | --- | BOE Bailey Speech at Investment Association Conference |
| 05-Jun | 0930 | May | BOE Decision Maker Panel Data |
| 05-Jun | 1440 | --- | BOE Dhingra Speech at UCL Macro Monitor Launch Event |
| 05-Jun | 1900 | --- | BOE Bailey at Wealth of Nations Anniversary Event |
| 08-Jun | 0001 | --- | KPMG-REC Report on Jobs |
| 09-Jun | 0001 | May | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 12-Jun | 0700 | Apr | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
| 12-Jun | 0930 | --- | BOE Agents' Summary of Business Conditions |
| 17-Jun | 0700 | May | Consumer Inflation Report / Producer Prices |
| 18-Jun | 0700 | Apr/May | Labour Market Report |
| 18-Jun | 1200 | --- | BOE Rate Decision |
| 19-Jun | 0001 | Jun | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 19-Jun | 0700 | May | Public Sector Finances / Retail Sales |
| 19-Jun | 1630 | --- | BOE to announce Q3-26 APF sales schedule |
| 23-Jun | 0930 | Jun | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jun | 0001 | May | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
BOBL TECHS: (M6) S/T Bull Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 116.770 High Mar 11
- RES 3: 116.465 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - May 18 bear leg
- RES 2: 116.240 High Apr 8 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 116.130 High May 28
- PRICE: 115.730 @ 06:02 BST Jun 3
- SUP 1: 115.578 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 115.050/114.630 Low May 21 / 18 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 114.295 2.236 proj of the Mar 2 - 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 114.000 Round number support
Bobl futures are in consolidation mode and trade closer to their recent highs. For now, a S/T bull cycle is intact. A resumption of gains would expose key S/T resistance at 116.240, the Apr 8 high and key resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a stronger reversal. It is still possible that the latest recovery is a correction - MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key support lies at 114.630, the May 18 low.
OIL: Crude More Cautious This Week On Likelihood Of US-Iran Deal
Oil has started Wednesday higher following reports of a strike at Iran’s Qeshm Island and sirens triggered in Kuwait & Bahrain. President Trump has made numerous assurances that there will be an agreement soon to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but yet it remains closed. Optimism drove oil prices lower in May but this week they are a lot more cautious and are higher again. Comments from the US and Iran continue to give different messages.
- Despite Trump saying there could be a US-Iran MOU within the week, there is persistent ongoing heightened uncertainty on how talks are progressing. Key sticking points on control of Hormuz, enriched Uranium, sanctions and frozen Iranian assets remain.
- WTI rose to a high of $96.08 on reports of new hostilities in the Middle East but then moderated to trade around $94.50/95.00. It is currently up 1.2% to $94.86/bbl.
- Brent is up 1.1% to $97.07, just off the intraday high at $97.28. It fell to $96.44 early in the session.
- Bloomberg reported a 6.8mn barrels crude US inventory drawdown last week, according to an API document. It appears that some of the oil was refined into gasoline as stocks of the product rose 3.5mn but distillate fell 214k. The official EIA data is published Wednesday.
- Later the Fed’s Barr & Logan and ECB’s Elderson & Cipollone appear. The Fed’s Beige Book is also published. In terms of data, US May ADP employment, May services ISM/PMI, April durables, European services/composite May PMIs and April euro area PPI print.
