LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (All Times UK)

JGB futures are currently maintaining a mid-range position and are in positive territory, up by 11 points compared to settlement levels.

• There hasn’t been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag, outside of the previously outlined Q4 capital spending and company profits data.
• Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session. Newsflow has been light so far.
• The cash JGB curve has twist-steepened, pivoting at the 10s, with yields 1.2bps lower (2-year) to 1.0bp higher (20-year). The benchmark 10-year yield is unchanged at 0.717% versus the Nov-Dec rally low of 0.555%.
• Swaps are richer, with rates flat to 2bps lower. Swap spreads are generally tighter.
• (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s government bonds have cheapened relative to swaps amid expectations that an end of the negative-interest-rate policy in the nation is now just a matter of time, Koichi Sugisaki, executive director at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities in Tokyo, writes in a note. (See link)
• Tomorrow, the local calendar sees Tokyo CPI and Jibun Bank PMI Composite & Services data, along with 10-year supply. BoJ Governor Ueda is also due to give a speech at FIN/SUM 2024.

ACGBs (YM +3.0 & XM +4.5) sit slightly stronger after dealing with narrow ranges. Today’s local data drop (the Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge, Q4 Company Profits and Inventories and January Building Approvals) failed to be market-moving.

• (AFR) New house approvals have fallen to their lowest level in nearly 12 years as higher borrowing and building costs put buyers, particularly in NSW and Victoria off committing to new homes, the latest official figures show. (See link)
• Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session. Newsflow has been light so far.
• Cash ACGBs are 4bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 1bp higher at -10bps.
• Swap rates are 3-4bps lower, with EFPs wider.
• The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +4.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across meeting out to Dec-24. A cumulative 39bps of easing is priced by year-end.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar sees Judo Bank PMI Composite & Services, Q4 Net Exports of GDP and BoP Current Account Balance. Q4 GDP is due on Wednesday.

Iron ore prices, per active Singapore futures, track near $113.40/ton in latest dealings. The benchmark has been unable to sustain upside through the latter stages of Feb and early March. Recent moves above $117/ton have drawn selling interest. We sit over 13% below mid Feb highs. We haven't been able to breach the simple 200-day MA on the downside though (near $112.2/ton).

• Focus this week will rest on the China NPC and any steps the authorities announce to boost the housing market, along with infrastructure.
• No 'big-bang' stimulus is expected, particularly around China's property sector. However, sell-side analysts have mixed views around the outlook for the commodity as we progress through this quarter and next (see this link from the AFR).
• On the supply side, iron ore inventories at China ports continued to climb to early March. We are now back to early April levels from last year.