Date | UK | Period | Event |
26-Feb | 0900 | BOE's Breeden at BOE agenda for Research Conference | |
26-Feb | 1100 | Feb | CBI Distributive Trades |
26-Feb | 1100 | BOE's Pill at BOE Agenda for Research conference | |
27-Feb | 0001 | Feb | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
27-Feb | 1340 | BOE's Ramsden at Association for Financial Markets | |
28-Feb | 1530 | BOE's Mann at FT event 'The economic outlook..' | |
29-Feb | 0930 | Jan | BOE M4/ Lending to individuals |
01-Mar | 0930 | Feb | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
01-Mar | 0930 | BOE's Pill Speech at the Cardiff University | |
05-Mar | 0001 | Feb | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
05-Mar | 0930 | Feb | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services/Composite PMI |
06-Mar | 0930 | Feb | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI |
06-Mar | 1230 | Budget Statement | |
12-Mar | 0700 | Jan | Labour Market Survey |
13-Mar | 0700 | Jan | GDP/ Trade/Services/Production/Construction |
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BNY Mellon write “the ECB is often criticised for setting policy according to the needs of a subset of core Eurozone economies, though in its defence this is the nature of a currency union which remains imperfect in many ways. However, applying the same approach to a subset of Eurozone economic sectors, especially one whose contribution to growth value-added is low (by President Lagarde’s own admission), could prove far more damaging.”
AUDUSD is unchanged and maintains a softer tone following recent bearish price action. The pair has breached a trendline drawn from the late October low. That break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction with sights on 0.6526, the Dec 7 low and the next key support. A clear break of this support would open 0.6500, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 0.6633, the 50-day EMA.
Germany looks to return to the market while Portugal and Italy both also still look to hold auctions in the week ahead. The EU and the Netherlands both came to the market yesterday. We now expect a Greek syndication next week instead of this week. In general, the syndication schedule is slowing down a bit as we approach the ECB meeting. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E20.5bln, down notably from the E51.2bln seen last week – but there are substantially lower redemptions and coupon payments.