LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (All Times in GMT)

Bunds trade on the front foot through the old Eurex open, as yesterday’s recovery from lows extends further.

• That leaves the contract +35, building on overnight gains.
• Technically, the medium-term trend direction continues to point down. An extension lower would open 126.62, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger. Conversely, bulls need to clear short-term resistance/the bull trigger at 130.20 to start turning price action more in their favour. That resistance point is the best part of 170 ticks away from prevailing levels.
• Peripheral spread dynamics will be eyed ahead of Thursday’s ECB monetary policy decision, although the move away from outright cheaps in core global FI and insulation via Friday’s S&P updates on both Greece & Italy is providing some support there. A quick reminder that existing Bank communication and sources pieces have played down the need for TPI intervention at current BTP spread levels.
• Flash PMIs from across the globe present the macro highlight on Tuesday.
• The latest ECB bank lending survey will also cross today.

The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Finland are all still due to issue this week while the EU and Belgium came to the market yesterday. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E19.9bln, down from E51.1bln last week.

• The Netherlands will come to the market for the second time in October today with the 10-year 2.50% Jul-33 DSL (ISIN: NL0015001AM2) on offer for E2.0-2.5bln.
• Also today, Germany will look to sell E4bln of the 2.40% Oct-28 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25018).

For more on this week and next week's supply, see the PDF here:

• RES 4: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 112.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 111.59 50.0% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 109.51/111.17 20-day EMA / High Oct 12 and key resistance
• PRICE: 109.07 @ Close Oct 23
• SUP 1: 107.42 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle low last week as the contract extended the reversal from 111.17, the Oct 12 high. Price has pierced key support at 107.62, the Oct 4 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the long-term downtrend and open 107.08, a Fibonacci projection. 111.17 marks the key resistance. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal. For now, gains are considered corrective.