LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (All Times in GMT)

Nov-09 06:23
Date UK Period Event
09-Nov 0830 BOE's Pill speaks at ICAEW UK Regions Economic Summit
10-Nov 0700 Sep GDP/Services /Production/ Trade / Construction
10-Nov 0700 3Q GDP First Estimate
14-Nov 1200 BOE's Dhingra panellist at Festival of Economics
14-Nov 1345 BOE's Pill speech at the Festival of Economics
15-Nov 0700 Oct Consumer inflation report / Producer prices
15-Nov 1800 BOE's Haskel speech at the Resolution foundation
16-Nov 1545 BOE's Ramsden at the European Systemic Risk Board
17-Nov 0700 Oct Retail Sales
17-Nov 1310 BOE's Ramsden keynote speech at Conference
17-Nov 1315 BOE's Greene panellist at European Banking Congress
21-Nov 0700 Oct Public Sector Finances
22-Nov 0001 Oct XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
22-Nov 1100 Nov CBI Industrial Trends
22-Nov - UK Autumn Statement
23-Nov 0930 Nov S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI flash
23-Nov 1530 DMO publish agenda for quarterly meetings

Historical bullets

BUNDS: Off the high post Cash open

Oct-10 06:20
  • Bund has now gained 162 ticks, since gapping Yesterday on safe haven flows, and some desks also likely taking some short off, as Geopolitical concerns come at the forefront.
  • The contract traded in a 18 ticks range, but has nonetheless tested Yesterday's high, printed 129.45 vs a 129.47 overnight.
  • Just now, FVZ3 is sold in 2.5k, through its session low, helping Bund lower.
  • Next resistance is at 129.70 50% Sep - Oct Downleg.
  • This retracement level in Yield is at 2.736%.
  • Support moves up to the 128.71/128.68 area, followed by 126.85 (gap).
  • Another lighter day on the data front, Italian IP, Greece CPI, US Final Wholesales are the notable releases, but unlikely to really move the needle.
  • BOE releases minutes of financial policy meeting.
  • SUPPLY: UK and Germany are only linkers, won't impact Bund nor Gilt. Focus is on the US today, selling $46bn of 3yr notes.
  • SPEAKERS: Fed Perli, Bostic, Waller, Kashkari, Daly, ECB Villeroy.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Breaches Key Support

Oct-10 06:14
  • RES 4: 113.84 High Sep 14
  • RES 3: 112.52 High Sep 20
  • RES 2: 110.66 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 109.98 High Sep 29
  • PRICE: 109.09 @ 17:13 Oct 9
  • SUP 1: 107.62 Low Oct 4
  • SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
  • SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
  • SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures traded lower last week and breached support at 108.08, the Sep 28 low. This confirms a clear break of the Sep 28 ‘22 low of 108.13 - a major support. The move lower reinforces bearish conditions and opens 107.08 next, a Fibonacci projection on the continuation chart. On the upside, resistance is at 109.98, the Sep 29 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

NORWAY: September CPI Shows Downside Surprise

Oct-10 06:10

Norway September CPI-ATE printed at +5.7 Y/Y (vs +6.1% cons; +6.3% prior) and +0.4 M/M. Headline CPI was +3.3% Y/Y (vs +4.0% cons; +4.8% prior) and -0.1% M/M.

  • Norges Bank had forecasted CPI-ATE at +6.1% and CPI at +4.2% Y/Y. This significant downside surprise may call into question the Norges Bank's rate decision in December, which was previously signalled to be a hike.
  • Housing, water, electricity and gas printed at -1.8% M/M and -4.9% Y/Y, while food and non-alcoholic beverages saw significant disinflation from +8.95% in August to +7.4% in September.
  • NOK turns sharply weaker following the release, with EURNOK almost 100pips higher and NOKSEK 20pips lower.