LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (All Times in GMT)
Nov-09 06:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 09-Nov | 0830 | BOE's Pill speaks at ICAEW UK Regions Economic Summit | |
| 10-Nov | 0700 | Sep | GDP/Services /Production/ Trade / Construction |
| 10-Nov | 0700 | 3Q | GDP First Estimate |
| 14-Nov | 1200 | BOE's Dhingra panellist at Festival of Economics | |
| 14-Nov | 1345 | BOE's Pill speech at the Festival of Economics | |
| 15-Nov | 0700 | Oct | Consumer inflation report / Producer prices |
| 15-Nov | 1800 | BOE's Haskel speech at the Resolution foundation | |
| 16-Nov | 1545 | BOE's Ramsden at the European Systemic Risk Board | |
| 17-Nov | 0700 | Oct | Retail Sales |
| 17-Nov | 1310 | BOE's Ramsden keynote speech at Conference | |
| 17-Nov | 1315 | BOE's Greene panellist at European Banking Congress | |
| 21-Nov | 0700 | Oct | Public Sector Finances |
| 22-Nov | 0001 | Oct | XpertHR pay deals for whole economy |
| 22-Nov | 1100 | Nov | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 22-Nov | - | UK Autumn Statement | |
| 23-Nov | 0930 | Nov | S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI flash |
| 23-Nov | 1530 | DMO publish agenda for quarterly meetings |
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BUNDS: Off the high post Cash open
Oct-10 06:20
- Bund has now gained 162 ticks, since gapping Yesterday on safe haven flows, and some desks also likely taking some short off, as Geopolitical concerns come at the forefront.
- The contract traded in a 18 ticks range, but has nonetheless tested Yesterday's high, printed 129.45 vs a 129.47 overnight.
- Just now, FVZ3 is sold in 2.5k, through its session low, helping Bund lower.
- Next resistance is at 129.70 50% Sep - Oct Downleg.
- This retracement level in Yield is at 2.736%.
- Support moves up to the 128.71/128.68 area, followed by 126.85 (gap).
- Another lighter day on the data front, Italian IP, Greece CPI, US Final Wholesales are the notable releases, but unlikely to really move the needle.
- BOE releases minutes of financial policy meeting.
- SUPPLY: UK and Germany are only linkers, won't impact Bund nor Gilt. Focus is on the US today, selling $46bn of 3yr notes.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Perli, Bostic, Waller, Kashkari, Daly, ECB Villeroy.
BTP TECHS: (Z3) Breaches Key Support
Oct-10 06:14
- RES 4: 113.84 High Sep 14
- RES 3: 112.52 High Sep 20
- RES 2: 110.66 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 109.98 High Sep 29
- PRICE: 109.09 @ 17:13 Oct 9
- SUP 1: 107.62 Low Oct 4
- SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
- SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
- SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
BTP futures traded lower last week and breached support at 108.08, the Sep 28 low. This confirms a clear break of the Sep 28 ‘22 low of 108.13 - a major support. The move lower reinforces bearish conditions and opens 107.08 next, a Fibonacci projection on the continuation chart. On the upside, resistance is at 109.98, the Sep 29 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
NORWAY: September CPI Shows Downside Surprise
Oct-10 06:10
Norway September CPI-ATE printed at +5.7 Y/Y (vs +6.1% cons; +6.3% prior) and +0.4 M/M. Headline CPI was +3.3% Y/Y (vs +4.0% cons; +4.8% prior) and -0.1% M/M.
- Norges Bank had forecasted CPI-ATE at +6.1% and CPI at +4.2% Y/Y. This significant downside surprise may call into question the Norges Bank's rate decision in December, which was previously signalled to be a hike.
- Housing, water, electricity and gas printed at -1.8% M/M and -4.9% Y/Y, while food and non-alcoholic beverages saw significant disinflation from +8.95% in August to +7.4% in September.
- NOK turns sharply weaker following the release, with EURNOK almost 100pips higher and NOKSEK 20pips lower.
