US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Trading Below Resistance

• On the commodity front, Gold traded lower last Friday resulting in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both support points would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5, the May 29 low. The metal has recovered from Monday’s low and for now, this highlights a possible false trendline break. Stronger gains would refocus attention $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low.
• In the oil space, WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.64. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.

The early curve steepening theme extends after BoE MPC member Taylor’s dovish comments, with 2 year-yields -2bp in the time since, pushing 2s10s back above 65bp, last ~3bp steeper on the day.

• Initial upside interest in the spread located at the June closing high (66.97bp), with the year-to-date closing high (78.54bp) still some distance away.