US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Trading Below Resistance
Aug-01 10:33
- RES 4: 112-15 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 3: 112-12+ High Jul 1 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 111-28 High Jul 3
- RES 1: 111-14+ High Jul 22 & Jul 30 and key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 111-26+ @ 11:21 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 110-19+/08+ Low Jul 24 / Low Jul 14 & 16
- SUP 2: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 3: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
- SUP 4: 109.25 Low May 27
Treasury futures continue to trade below a key short-term resistance at 111-14+, the high on Jul 22 and 30. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal and open 111-28, the Jul 3 high. On the downside, key support is 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. Clearance of this price point would reinstate a bearish theme. First support lies at 110-19+, the Jul 24 low.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Remains Above Its Recent Lows
Jul-02 10:33
- On the commodity front, Gold traded lower last Friday resulting in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both support points would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5, the May 29 low. The metal has recovered from Monday’s low and for now, this highlights a possible false trendline break. Stronger gains would refocus attention $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low.
- In the oil space, WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.64. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.
GILTS: Steepening Extends Post-Taylor
Jul-02 10:31
The early curve steepening theme extends after BoE MPC member Taylor’s dovish comments, with 2 year-yields -2bp in the time since, pushing 2s10s back above 65bp, last ~3bp steeper on the day.
- Initial upside interest in the spread located at the June closing high (66.97bp), with the year-to-date closing high (78.54bp) still some distance away.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: June ADP Employment, Challenger Job Cuts
Jul-02 10:28
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 07/02 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (1.1%, --)
- 07/02 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (47.0%, --)
- 07/02 0815 ADP Employment Change (37k, 98k)
- 07/02 1130 US Tsy $65B 17W bill auctions
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
