BOBL TECHS: (U5) Off Lows, But Still Weak

FVQ5 107.75 puts paper paid 0-07+ on 20K.

• RES 4: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 172.92 High Jul 16 ‘24
• RES 1: 172.54 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 172.50 @ 07:17 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 170.81  Low Jul 11  
• SUP 2: 169.75 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1   
• SUP 4: 167.09 50-day EMA   

The trend condition in EURJPY is unchanged, a bull cycle is in play and the cross continues to appreciate. Fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 172.92, the Jul 16 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 169.75, the 20-day EMA.

Swedish money market participant inflation expectations fell across time horizons in July. Most notably, 5-year ahead CPIF expectations fell two tenths to 1.8%. That looks like the lowest since July 2021. The survey was conducted between June 30 – July 6, so did not include the stronger-than-expected flash June inflation report. The Riksbank will likely need to see several 5-year prints below the 2% target to become concerned about a de-anchoring of inflation expectations, not just in the monthly money market participant survey but also the broader quarterly survey (which includes social partners’ expectations).

• 1-year ahead CPIF expectations fell a tenth to 1.9%. 1-year ahead GDP expectations rose a tenth to 1.8%.
• 2-year ahead CPIF expectations fell a tenth to 1.9%. 2-year ahead GDP expectations rose three tenths to 2.4%.
• 5-year ahead GDP expectations fell a tenth to 2.0%.