BOBL TECHS: (U5) Off Lows, But Still Weak
- RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13
- RES 3: 118.030 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 117.710 High Aug 5
- RES 1: 117.456 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.440 @ 07:14 BST Aug 14
- SUP 1: 116.970 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.840 Low Mar 18 (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)
Prices faded into the Tuesday close, testing recent lows before a firm rally into yesterday’s close. Bobl futures, however, remain well toward the bottom-end of the recent range. Despite piercing first resistance early last week at the 50-day EMA, prices remain capped to keep focus on the bear trigger of 116.970 - the July 25 and range low. Having failed to establish a base on the hammer formation and engulfing signal in late July, the S/T trend looks weak. Clearance of 116.970 opens levels on the continuation chart at 116.80-84.
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US TSY OPTIONS: FVQ5 107.75 Puts Lifted
FVQ5 107.75 puts paper paid 0-07+ on 20K.
EURJPY TECHS: Continues To Appreciate
- RES 4: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 172.92 High Jul 16 ‘24
- RES 1: 172.54 Intraday high
- PRICE: 172.50 @ 07:17 BST Jul 15
- SUP 1: 170.81 Low Jul 11
- SUP 2: 169.75 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.09 50-day EMA
The trend condition in EURJPY is unchanged, a bull cycle is in play and the cross continues to appreciate. Fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 172.92, the Jul 16 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 169.75, the 20-day EMA.
SWEDEN: Notable Fall In 5-year CPIF Expectations
Swedish money market participant inflation expectations fell across time horizons in July. Most notably, 5-year ahead CPIF expectations fell two tenths to 1.8%. That looks like the lowest since July 2021. The survey was conducted between June 30 – July 6, so did not include the stronger-than-expected flash June inflation report. The Riksbank will likely need to see several 5-year prints below the 2% target to become concerned about a de-anchoring of inflation expectations, not just in the monthly money market participant survey but also the broader quarterly survey (which includes social partners’ expectations).
- 1-year ahead CPIF expectations fell a tenth to 1.9%. 1-year ahead GDP expectations rose a tenth to 1.8%.
- 2-year ahead CPIF expectations fell a tenth to 1.9%. 2-year ahead GDP expectations rose three tenths to 2.4%.
- 5-year ahead GDP expectations fell a tenth to 2.0%.
