EM CEEMEA CREDIT: TURKEY: Fitch: Banks face ST pressure from higher rates

Jun-04 14:08

Republic of Türkiye (TURKEY; B1pos/BB-/BB-)

“*Fitch Ratings: Turkish Banks Face Short-Term Pressure from Higher Interest Rates” – BBG

  • Fitch’s comments are broadly in line so not too meaningful or material for any of the banks under our coverage.
  • Fitch commenting that NIM’s should contract ST due to higher lira deposit funding costs. Turkish banking liabilities generally reprice faster than assets, with no material increase in average loan book rates since April, despite loans being ST. The agency expects NIMs to improve later in the year as CBRT cuts rates, Fitch’s base case is 33% by end of 2025.
  • Impaired loans expected to continue to rise but remain manageable. According to Fitch there doesn’t seem to be any evidence of pressure on banks’ access to external funding, since the volatility in March.

Historical bullets

EUR: FX Exchange traded Option

May-05 14:08

EURUSD (9th May) 1.1400p, sold at 0.0079 in ~1.1k.

BUNDS: Fell 20 ticks on the US ISM Services Data

May-05 14:05
  • The German Bund falls 20 ticks following the higher than expected US ISM services, Price Paid, New orders and Employment all beat expectation.
  • The move is still fairly contained and support is still see at 130.75, despite printing a 130.69 Overnight.

US TSYS: Post-ISM Services React

May-05 14:05
  • Treasury futures gap lower after higher than expected ISM Services data.
  • Jun'25 10Y currently -5 at 111-00 vs. 110-31 low (10Y yld at 4.3453%), through technical support below at 111-02 (Low Mar 2 / 50-dma).
  • Sights are on support at the 50-day EMA, at 110-30+. A clear breach of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 110-16+, the Apr 22 low.
  • Cross asset: Still weaker BBG US$ index bounces to 1220.07 (-4.44); stocks pare losses: S&P eminis -38.5 at 5670.25.