US: Trump's Approval Rating Recovery Under Threat From Renewed Iran Conflict

A new survey from TIPP Insights has found, “Cost of living and inflation sit at the top of the public’s concerns, with the economy close behind. The US-Iran conflict now ranks third, ahead of health care and immigration.”

• The report notes, “Cost of living and inflation dominate. 43% of respondents name it among the top three issues facing the country, far ahead of any rival and up sharply from the winter, when it stood at 31%. The economy ranks second at 30%. The U.S.-Iran conflict enters the top tier at 23%, a new arrival in a list that looked very different a few months ago.”
• TIPP continues, “Inflation unites the electorate. Cost of living tops the list for every group: Democrats at 42%, Republicans at 41%, and independents at 46%. Republicans rank the U.S.-Iran conflict second at 28%, above the economy and above immigration.”

Figure 1: “What are the top three issues facing the country?”

Source: Tipp Insights

• RES 4: 1.3658 High May 1 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3574 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - 18 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3522 61.8% retracement of the May 1 - 18 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.3435/1.3509 20-day EMA / High May 26 
• PRICE: 1.3384 @ 16:41 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 1.3303 Low May 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3277 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 1 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 1.3212 Low Apr 7 
• SUP 4: 1.3159 Low Mar 31 and a key support

Key short-term support in GBPUSD at 1.3303, the May 18 low, remains exposed. Clearance of this price point would strengthen a bearish threat and pave the way for an extension towards 1.3277, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 1 bull leg. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and open 1.3159, the Mar 31 low. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3509, the May 26 high.

Bloomberg headlines from the full report, here. 

• "*US, IRAN ZERO IN ON FOUR NUCLEAR ISSUES IN TALKS: NYT
• *US BELIEVES IRAN TO SETTLE ON 15-YR ENRICHMENT SUSPENSION: NYT
• *NYT CITES US OFFICIALS, DIPLOMATS BRIEFED ON US, IRAN TALKS" - bbg

Combined with Axios headlines on not yet ruling whether the US helicopter crash was intentional, it helps extend a move off lows for US equity futures. They had earlier seen additional downward pressure on President Trump posting that the US must respond to an Iran attack on a US helicopter. 

• "*IRANIAN DRONE HIT US HELICOPTER AND GOT IT TO CRASH: AXIOS
• *US INVESTIGATION HASN'T DETERMINED IF IT WAS INTENTIONAL: AXIOS" - bbg