SECURITY: Trump Says "It's Not Too Late For Iran To Make A Deal"

• Stocks have bounced off recent Wednesday session lows after Pres Trump "signed an agreement with Qatar to generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion," according to a fact sheet issued by the White House.
• Currently, the DJIA trades up 2.3 points (0.01%) at 42143.74, S&P E-Minis up 9.5 points (0.16%) at 5914.25, the Nasdaq up 119.1 points (0.6%) at 19130.52.
• Information Technology and Communication Services sectors outperformed for the second consecutive session, chip makers leading the former after the Trump admin lifts curbs and touted deals with Saudi Arabia yesterday.
• Leading gainers included: Super Micro Computer +17.10%, Advanced Micro Devices +4.73%, NVIDIA +3.27%, Enphase Energy +3.00% and Dell Technologies +2.83%.
• Interactive media and entertainment shares supported the Communication Services sector: Alphabet +2.98%, Take-Two Interactive Software +1.22%, Match Group +1.11% and Netflix +1.01%.
• On the flipside, Health Care and Utilities underperformed in the first half, pharmaceuticals weighing on the former: Bio-Techne -4.81%, Solventum -4.54%, Revvity -4.44%, Moderna -4.24% and AbbVie -3.76%.
• Shares weighing on the Utility sector included: Eversource Energy -2.88%, Exelon -2.35%, WEC Energy Group -2.31%, Consolidated Edison -2.10% and Constellation Energy -2.04%.

• For context, the flow of total investment in the US summed to $4.0trn in 2024 (from standard national accounts), of which $0.9trn was in structures, $1.5trn in equipment and $1.6tn in IP.
• That total was worth 13.8% GDP in 2024, close to the high end for previous cycles having rarely exceeded and last higher with the Dotcom bubble, peaking at 15% GDP in 2000.  

The magnitude of investment in the US under the second Trump administration has been a point of contention in US politics. The following helps quantify the amounts seen, which we estimate to be a max case of $0.85trn per year through the presidential term. That’s worth 2.9% of latest annualized GDP which compares with non-residential investment worth 13.8% GDP in 2024 with a harder outstanding question of to what extent the pledged amounts from US-based investments were already planned. The below doesn’t include the just announced $1.2trn “economic exchange” with Qatar which looks particularly light on investments judging by the White House statement. 

• Talking on May 8 in a press conference announcing the UK-US trade pact, President Trump said more broadly: “ I think we can say that we'll be close to $10 trillion of investment. I think we're actually at that number now, if you add up some of the ones we haven't heard about yet. […] It took a little while to get things done, but once we started, when you think of that, close to $10 trillion of investment, you've had years where the United States wouldn't do $1 trillion in a year, wouldn't do anywhere near $1 trillion. We did $10 trillion in two months, so it's amazing what's happening.”
• The White House on May 6 posted a summary of the largest US-based investments announced so far under the Trump administration.
• These sum to $2.1trn or $510bn per year considering what is more often than not a four-year pledge for the presidential term and assuming a linear profile is realized. One thing that initially stands out is the lack of plans for immediate investment, the $100bn of Project Stargate aside.
• Add in foreign state investment and this increases another $2.2trn although that’s ‘only’ $345bn per year considering the huge $1.4trn from UAE is over 10 years. This is very likely to be a maximum, considering that UAE pledge is 260% of 2024 GDP and the $600bn from Saudi Arabia sums to $283bn when going through the itemized breakdown from the White House according to Axios. The only figure we mark down in the table below is the Japanese pledge to “boost” its investment in the US which should be treated as a change in stock rather than flow per the White House summary.
• Those sum to an optimistic $4.3trn pledged worth ~$0.85trn per year, with of course question markets over the extent to which this is a repackaging of previously planned investment.