TARIFFS: Trump Says He Isn't "Focused" On Canada, Hints At Unilateral Tariff
US President Donald Trump briefly addressed US-Canada trade talks during his extended press gaggle. He said, "We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada may be one where they just pay tariffs. Not really a negotiation." Trump added: "We don't have a deal with Canada. We haven't been focused on it."
- CBC reported yesterday that Canadian trade negotiator, Dominic LeBlanc, downplayed the chances of a deal with Trump by Aug. 1, telling reporters: "We've made progress, but we have a lot of work in front of us."
- LeBlanc added: "We're going to continue to work toward the Aug. 1 deadline. But all of these deadlines are with the understanding that we'll take the time necessary to get the best deal that we think is in [Canada's] interest..."
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said similarly on Wednesday: "Our objective is not to reach a deal whatever it costs. We are pursuing a deal that will be in the best interest of Canadians."
- The lack of progress towards a deal appears to chime with Trump's 'tariff letter' warning to refrain from retaliatory action. Canada's more robust response appears to have put Ottawa lower on the list of US trade priorities than countries offering a more restrained response, such as Japan and South Korea.
- NYT reported this week that, following a meeting with Carney, the 13 [Canadian] premiers still had conflicting views about further trade retaliation against the United States," if Trump imposes 35% tariffs on Canadian exports on Aug 1.
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FED: Boston's Collins Still Eyes Cuts Resuming This Year
Boston Fed's Collins (2025 FOMC Voter, leans dovish) sounds as patient as before on rate cuts in a speech Wednesday (link). She continues to see rate cuts later this year from the currently "modestly restrictive" stance but like the vast majority of her colleagues, she highlights prevailing uncertainty and wants to see more data before coming to that conclusion. Some key quotes:
- "calibrating appropriate policy is challenging in contexts when projections of inflation call for a tighter policy stance while forecasts of real activity call for a looser one. The overall solid current conditions enable the Fed to take the time to carefully assess the incoming data and their implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks to inflation and economic activity. Indeed, the recent back-and-forth in tariff policy, and the potential for more changes to come, validate the careful approach I call “active patience” that the Fed has taken since the beginning of the year."
- "While I continue to expect it will be appropriate to resume gradual policy normalization later this year, my outlook could change significantly as events unfold, and the economic impact of changes in various government policies comes into sharper focus. Much will depend on whether the “price shock” from tariffs dissipates quickly, without derailing inflation expectations, and on whether the associated slowdown in real activity is limited. For now, however, I see the current monetary policy stance as modestly restrictive, and well positioned to address a range of possible outcomes."
- "I continue to see upside risks to my outlook for inflation and downside risks to my outlook for economic growth and the labor market. And I do not rule out scenarios with larger and more persistent tariff effects on inflation."
NATO: Trump Speaks On Defence Spending & Middle East After NATO Summit
US President Donald Trump delivering his presser at the end of the NATO summit in The Hague. Livestream here. Calls the meeting a "highly successful summit", "highly productive", touts "major progress" and says "tremendous things have been accomplished" at the summit.
- Says that the major focus of the meeting was getting spending of allies up to 5% of GDP spending on defence and for those countries to share responsibility for Europe's defence, says it will be known as the 'Hague Defence Commitment'. Says that additional money should be spent on "very serious military hardware, not bureaucracy".
- On Iran, Trump says 'Iran won't get access to nuclear material'.
- Trump's presser comes after a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which is believed to have lasted around 40-50 minutes.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish.
- This week’s fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7.
- Sights are on 6200.00 and 6281.12, the 1.50 and 1.618 projections of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing.
- Key support remains at the 50-day EMA.
- A clear break of it would signal a reversal.
