OIL: Trump Calls to Open Up North Sea Oil
The US president-elect made the remarks in a post on Truth Social Friday, saying the UK government was making “a very big mistake.” An increase in the windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas producers from 35% to 38% was announced in October, with its extension by one year. The revenue is earmarked for renewable energy projects.
- Trump’s post was in response to a report that US producer APA Corp’s Apache unit plans to exit the North Sea by the end of 2029. Apache’s North Sea production is expected to decline by 25% in 2025 from 2024.
- Oil companies have been leaving the North Sea for some time, as production has fallen from the peak 4.4m b/d of oil equivalent around 2000 to around 1.3m boe/d currently.
- The UK Labour government intends to quadruple offshore wind generation to 60 gigawatts by 2030
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 proj of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6100.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 6086.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6082.75 @ 14:22 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 5970.46 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5883.29 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5814.75 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
The S&P E-Minis contract maintains a bullish tone and has again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on the 6100.00 handle next. Initial support to watch lies at 5979.30, the 20-day EMA.
US: GOP Reconciliation Plan Faces Pushback From Top GOP Tax Writer
Republican leadership appears set for a "100-day" strategy for the incoming Trump administration that includes a Continuing Resolution to punt government funding until late March and two major bills to be passed under reconciliation – a procedural manoeuvre that bypasses the Senate filibuster, allowing the governing party to move partisan legislation.
- The government funding package is expected to include disaster relief but is unlikely to include additional Ukraine funds or bipartisan legislation to protect banks that work with cannabis companies.
- Punchbowl reports that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will, "begin socializing all of this with the House GOP conference today,” adding that “Johnson met with the House Freedom Caucus members [on Tuesday] to pitch his CR plan…”
- The Biden administration passed two bills using reconciliation: The American Rescue Plan and The Inflation Reduction Act. Republicans argue these two bills broadened the scope of reconciliation - traditionally limited to spending-related legislation.
- Incoming Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) told reporters that the first bill, focusing on the border, energy and national defence, will be signed by Trump within thirty days of taking office. The second bill, which includes more complex tax reforms, would follow later in the year.
- The top Republican tax writer in the House, Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-MO), told Punchbowl it was “reckless” to put taxes on the back burner even temporarily and that it would be “creating an opportunity to increase taxes for all Americans,” foreshadowing a challenging period of intra-party dispute to synchronise strategy.
AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend Low
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6591/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6523/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
- PRICE: 0.6414 @ 14:26 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 0.6399 Intraday low
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
- SUP 4: 0.6259 1.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and today’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions, marking a resumption of the downtrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6523, the 20-day EMA.
