USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.6630 High Aug 2
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6445/6501 High Oct 11 / High Sep 29
• PRICE: 0.6367 @ 16:32 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 0.6286 Low Oct 3 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish following the recent breach of support at 0.6331, the Sep 27 low. Attention is on 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this support, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key trend resistance is unchanged at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a reversal.

A new survey from Ipsos has found that, “While most Americans (59%) think gas prices are rising in recent weeks, they really aren’t. According to GasBuddy, prices are down roughly 14 cents from a month ago and a quarter from a year ago.”

• Ipsos: “A whopping 74% in the West region think prices are rising as gas in California crested near $6 a gallon before starting to fall over the past week. California is still the only state with average prices above $5. Overall, three in five people thinking prices are rising is about where we were a year ago, in Wave 63 of the Tracker. At that point, prices had just started dropping after a two-year run of increases post-pandemic, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.”
• The survey shows that President Biden’s messaging on the economy and energy is failing to filter through to voters. If sentiment fails to change next year it could shape up a major vulnerability to Biden as presidential approval traditionally tracks closely with gasoline prices.

Figure 1: Is the Price of Gasoline Higher, Lower, or the Same as the Start of this Year?

Source: Ipsos