USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 154.00 3.382 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
- RES 2: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 151.95 High Oct 21 2022 and a major resistance
- PRICE: 150.49 @ 16:25 GMT Nov 16
- SUP 1: 150.06 Nov 15 low
- SUP 2: 149.21/149.11 Low Nov 3 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 148.81 Low Oct 30 and key support
- SUP 4: 147.43 Low Oct 3
The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish the Tuesday - Thursday sell-off appears corrective. This week’s fresh cycle high, reinforces current conditions. The break of 151.72, the Oct 31 high and a bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and MA studies remain in a bull-mode position, reflecting the market's positive sentiment. Sights are on 151.95, the Oct 21 2022 high and a major resistance. Support is at 150.06, the Nov 15 low.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 0.6630 High Aug 2
- RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
- RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6445/6501 High Oct 11 / High Sep 29
- PRICE: 0.6367 @ 16:32 BST Oct 17
- SUP 1: 0.6286 Low Oct 3 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support
The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish following the recent breach of support at 0.6331, the Sep 27 low. Attention is on 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this support, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key trend resistance is unchanged at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a reversal.
US: Voter Perceptions Of Gasoline Prices Could Be A Biden Vulnerability In 2024
A new survey from Ipsos has found that, “While most Americans (59%) think gas prices are rising in recent weeks, they really aren’t. According to GasBuddy, prices are down roughly 14 cents from a month ago and a quarter from a year ago.”
- Ipsos: “A whopping 74% in the West region think prices are rising as gas in California crested near $6 a gallon before starting to fall over the past week. California is still the only state with average prices above $5. Overall, three in five people thinking prices are rising is about where we were a year ago, in Wave 63 of the Tracker. At that point, prices had just started dropping after a two-year run of increases post-pandemic, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.”
- The survey shows that President Biden’s messaging on the economy and energy is failing to filter through to voters. If sentiment fails to change next year it could shape up a major vulnerability to Biden as presidential approval traditionally tracks closely with gasoline prices.
Figure 1: Is the Price of Gasoline Higher, Lower, or the Same as the Start of this Year?
Source: Ipsos
US STOCKS: Equities Reverse Gains But Relatively Resilient To Yield Squeeze
- Equities have seen a quick but limited step lower with Israel advising its citizens to leave Turkey in a sign of regional spillover. It adds to reversal of earlier gains, hindered by the second wind of the sell-off in the belly of the Treasury curve that started around 1230ET.
- Despite moving back lower on the day, they hold up well with 5Y yields hitting fresh highs since 2007 and currently +15.5bps despite having rallied 2bps off yield highs.
- ESZ3 trades at 4388.8 (-0.3%) off a high of 4423.25 having stopped just short of resistance at 4426.42 (50-day EMA).
- The Nasdaq 100 (-0.6%) e-mini underperforms in light of the real yields squeeze, and notably weighed by Nvidia which has pared losses but to a still heavy -4.5%, whilst the Russell 2000 (+1.2%) benefits from the strength in today’s US retail sales data helping support the soft-landing view.
- Broad beats for today’s pre-market earnings: Johnson & Johnson (adj EPS $2.66 vs est $2.52), Lockheed (adj EPS 6.77 vs est 6.67), GS (net rev $11.82B vs est $11.13B), BofA (trading revenue ex DVA $4.42B vs est $4.16B)
- A few smaller names to come after the close but greater focus is on tomorrow’s earnings slate, which includes Tesla, Procter & Gamble, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, Abbot Laboratories & Elevance Health.
