USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

May's JPMorgan Global Composite PMI remained unchanged vs April at 51.8, the 40th consecutive month in which the index has indicated global economic expansion. 

• That included a near-five year high of 53.5 in Manufacturing ("production volumes rose across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods industries. The investment goods category registered the strongest growth of the six sub-sectors covering both manufacturing and services for the second month in a row") and a 3-month high of 51.3 in Services ("Output rose in both the business and financial services
  sectors, with the faster growth registered in the latter. Business activity contracted in the consumer services category for the third month in a row").
• Manufacturing PMI has been outperforming services for three consecutive months now, having underperformed for virtually the entire 2023-2025 period.
• Overall new orders rose for the 31st consecutive month, as "higher levels of business activity were boosted by clients bringing forward purchases to mitigate expected supply disruptions and price increases".
• It wasn't entirely positive however, with the outlook for both activity and employment remaining a weak point: "underneath the encouraging headline print are signs of downside risk, with both the future output and employment PMIs falling sharply on the month, and the latter index now at its lowest level since July 2020.” And re the weak outlook for future output, it was noted "the rate of expansion may ease once the boost from temporary price and supply factors subside and safety stocks are replenished."
• Additionally - no surprise - input price inflation reached a 3-and-a-half year high.
• Despite the outlook for rate hikes from the ECB and BOE, both the Eurozone and UK registered contractions in PMI, compared with expansions in Canada, the US, China, and India.

• RES 4: 0.7390 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low 
• RES 3: 0.7325 1.500 proj of the Apr 29 - May 1 - May 5 price swing  
• RES 2: 0.7223/78 High May 15 / 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.7201 High May 29
• PRICE: 0.7142 @ 16:34 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: 0.7080 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 0.7056 50.0% retracement of the Mar 30 - May 6 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 0.6986 Low Apr 13 
• SUP 4: 0.6899 Low Apr 7

AUDUSD is trading in a range. The recent  pullback still appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. Note that support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.7128, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.7056, a Fibonacci retracement. The bull trigger is 0.7278, the May 6 high.      

A slight pullback in risk assets on this report by Iranian media outlet Fars on Telegram claiming Iran's Navy targeted the US's "command and control center": 

• "The Navy targeted the command and control center of the US military's evils against our country.
• "Hours earlier, following the aggressive actions, violation of the regulations of the Strait of Hormuz, and evil against Iranian commercial vessels in the Sea of ​​Oman by the terrorist and aggressive American army, the Navy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, upon discovery and identification, targeted the "command and control center" of this evil, located on an American destroyer that was attempting to approach the waters of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Sea of ​​Oman.
• "The Navy will monitor the criminal and aggressor American-Zionist enemy with all its might and will avenge the innocent blood of the proud martyrs of the Dena destroyer in the most severe manner and will deal with any evil in the shortest possible time."