USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 187.95 High Apr 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 187.56 High Apr 30
• RES 2: 186.56 76.4% retracement of the Apr 17 - May 6 bear leg  
• RES 1: 185.40/186.32 Monday’s high / High Jun 16 and 17
• PRICE: 183.84 @ 07:13 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 183.50 Low May 07 
• SUP 2: 182.05 Low May 06 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 181.87 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 180.81 Low Feb 12 and a key M/T support  

EURJPY has traded lower this week resulting in a breach of support at 184.01, the Jun 8 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement with sights on 183.50 initially, the May 07 low. Initial resistance to watch is 185.40, Monday’s high. A reversal higher and a break of this level would reinstate the recent bullish theme and refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 186.32, the Jun 16 and 17 high.

Italy and Germany are scheduled to come to the market today to hold auctions. Italy will return on Friday, concluding auction issuance for the week. Earlier this week, the EU, the Netherlands and Germany already held auctions. We look for gross issuance of E30.1bln for the week, down from E29.4bln ex-retail last week. Italy and the EU published their quarterly issuance updates yesterday.

For the full document with a recap of issuance so far this week, a look ahead to issuance through the remainder of this week and next week and a first round up of expectations for Q3 / H2 issuance plans click here.

• Italy will look to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction today with E2.0-2.5bln of the on-the-run 2.20% Feb-28 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005692410) and E1.50-1.75bln of the 2.40% May-39 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005547812) on offer.
• Germany will return to the market today to hold a LT Bund auction with E1bln of the 4.00% Jan-37 Bund (ISIN: DE0001135275) on offer alongside E1bln of the 3.40% May-47 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2T000).
• Italy will return to the market on Friday with a 5/10-year BTP / CCTeu auction. On offer will be E2.5-3.0bln of the on-the-run 5-year 3.15% Jun-31 BTP (ISIN: IT0005707614), E1.0-1.5bln of the off-the-run 10-year 3.45% Feb-36 BTP (ISIN: IT0005676504), E2.0-2.5bln of the on-the-run 3.80% Jul-36 BTP (ISIN: IT0005706285) and E1.5-2.0bln of the Apr-36 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005707689)

• RES 4: 163.59 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 9 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 3: 163.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 162.28 1.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 9 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 1: 161.95 High Jul 3 ’24 and a major resistance
• PRICE: 161.64 @ 07:08 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 160.99 Low Jun 19 
• SUP 2: 160.39 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 159.51 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 158.74 Low May 25 

Bullish conditions in USDJPY remain intact and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The recent breach of resistance at 160.72, the Apr 30 high, confirmed a resumption of the M/T uptrend. Sights are on 161.95 next, the Jul 3 ‘24 major high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support is seen around the 50-day EMA, currently at 159.51.